La Coruna vs Sevilla prediction & probabilities (2026-09-16)

La Liga

La Coruna vs Sevilla Both Teams to Score

2026-09-16 · 18:00
Both Teams to Score51.3%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 51.3%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
51%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Both teams to score · Yes at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: La Coruna have averaged 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Sevilla 1.6 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.4% for over 2.5 and 71.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. La Coruna have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5, Sevilla in 4 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes51.3%

No48.7%

Over 2.5 · context45.4%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

La Coruna scored

1.8

La Coruna conceded

1.2

Sevilla scored

1.6

Sevilla conceded

1.2

Each team to score

La Coruna to score71.9%

La Coruna 2+ goals36.3%

Sevilla to score70.4%

Sevilla 2+ goals34.5%

By half

Both score in 1st half21.3%

Both score in 2nd half26.4%

This season (2026/27)

100.0%La Coruna BTTS rate
0.0%La Coruna clean sheets
1.8La Coruna goals scored per game
80.0%Sevilla BTTS rate
20.0%Sevilla clean sheets
1.6Sevilla goals scored per game

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

9.0%

0

19.4%

1

26.3%

2

21.3%

3

13.3%

4

10.5%

5+

In-depth analysis

37.4%Favoured: La Coruna
51.3%Both Teams to Score
45.4%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 45.4% for three or more goals and 71.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With La Coruna favoured at 37.4%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.

These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 51.3% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects a balanced game from the 45.4% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutLa Coruna are the model’s pick on the result at 37.4%, game state shapes how this market plays out.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

La Coruna37.4%

Draw27.8%

Sevilla34.8%

The model leans La Coruna to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

P

Pierre-Emerick AubameyangLa Coruna · 2.66 shots/90
To score 35.8%

A

AlfonSevilla · 2.61 shots/90
To score 14.1%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

La CorunaDDWWD
SevillaWWLDW

Last 5 meetings: La Coruna 0 · 2 draws · Sevilla 3 · 3.0 goals/game.

Recent trends

La CorunaBTTS 5/5Over 2.5 2/5
SevillaBTTS 4/5Over 2.5 3/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in La Coruna vs Sevilla?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 51.3% for La Coruna vs Sevilla.

Will La Coruna score against Sevilla?
The model rates La Coruna to score at 71.9% and Sevilla to score at 70.4%.

How often have La Coruna seen both teams score recently?
La Coruna have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5, Sevilla in 4 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,462Matches graded

In 26,670 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 58.8%✓ 59.8%✗ 58.8%✗ 51.5%✓ 51.1%✓ 52.3%✗ 50.5%✗ 58.7%✗ 63.1%✗ 50.1%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Leeds vs Newcastle2026-09-14Yes 58.8%Hit
Villarreal vs Betis2026-09-14Yes 59.8%Hit
Como vs Parma2026-09-14No 58.8%Miss
Torino vs Roma2026-09-14Yes 51.5%Miss
Inter vs Udinese2026-09-14Yes 51.1%Hit

More La Liga, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.