2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs Magdeburg Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 66.9% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 85.7% and it missed (2 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 66.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 83.4% for over 2.5 to 30.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.1%. Between the two sides, Magdeburg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 19.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.9% | 69.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.9%
35.9%
69.9%
43.9%
Card handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.2% | 80.8% |
| -0.5 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| +0.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| +1.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 42.8% | 57.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hertha vs Magdeburg. The model leans toward Magdeburg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.9%Over 3.5 cards14.3%Any red card62.9%Hertha over 1.5 cards69.9%Magdeburg over 1.5 cards57.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Hertha over 1.5 cards sits at 62.9% and Magdeburg at 69.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.3% (Hertha 10.9%, Magdeburg 3.9%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Hertha vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.9% for Hertha vs Magdeburg.
Will there be a red card in Hertha vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hertha vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Magdeburg to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.