2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs Magdeburg Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 58.1% and it landed (12 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 56.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 79.7% for over 7.5 to 25.7% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. On the corner count, Hertha are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 48.2%, with a level count at 10.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.7% | 74.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.8%
59.6%
44.2%
70.6%
54.5%
38.9%
Corner handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| -0.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| +0.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| +1.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Hertha.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Hertha over 4.5 corners sits at 59.6% and Magdeburg at 54.5%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Hertha vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 58.1% for Hertha vs Magdeburg.
Which team will win the corner count in Hertha vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hertha to win the corner count at 48.2%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.