Osnabruck vs Braunschweig prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Osnabruck vs Braunschweig: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

2. Bundesliga
Osnabruck

LWLLW

Full time3-1Sun, 6 Sep 202612:30UK
Braunschweig

WLWLL

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Over 8.5 corners

65%

Draw or Braunschweig

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Osnabruck 3-1 Braunschweig
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Braunschweig at 39.0%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 55.7% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 79.3% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 66.7% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 59.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 84.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 73.6% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 57.0% and it landed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 66.8% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 62.6% and it landed (34 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 67.1% and it landed (20 shots on target). We called No at 83.6% and it landed.

Match data Osnabruck Braunschweig
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 3 1
Shots 13 21
Shots on target 8 12
Corners 5 5
Yellow cards 1 5
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 13

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BraunschweigWin probability
39.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Over 8.5 corners65.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.52
Draw or Braunschweig64.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.54

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Osnabruck and Braunschweig on 6 September 2026: Braunschweig nose ahead at 39%. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 33% for Braunschweig. The gap itself is information. • No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Osnabruck, 0 draws and 3 for Braunschweig over 4 games, 3.5 goals on average. • The run in: Osnabruck arrive W2 D0 L4, Braunschweig W2 D0 L4. As a promoted side, Osnabruck carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.39, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners44.8%@ 2.23
Braunschweig win39.0%@ 2.56
Over 11.5 corners35.0%@ 2.86
Medium risk

Osnabruck or draw61.0%@ 1.64
Both teams to score59.3%@ 1.69
Over 2.5 goals55.7%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.28
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.59
2-1 correct score8.1%@ 12.30

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Osnabruck

35.2%-4.4%

Draw

25.8%-1.8%

Braunschweig

39.0%+6.1%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.39, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.3%

High probability

Over 2.555.7%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.3%

Good chance

Over 10.544.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.0%

Toss-up

Most cornersOsnabruck51.2%Braunschweig38.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.574.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.6%

Strong chance

Over 26.550.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.7%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.3%2.555.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.3%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

OsnabruckLWLLW
BraunschweigWLWLL

Last 4 meetings: Osnabruck 1 · 0 draws · Braunschweig 3 · 3.5 goals/game.

2024-04-20Osnabruck 0-3 Braunschweig
2023-11-11Braunschweig 3-2 Osnabruck
2021-04-11Osnabruck 0-4 Braunschweig
2020-12-13Braunschweig 0-2 Osnabruck

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

OsnabruckBraunschweig
League position#14 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-21-0-2
Current streakW1L2
Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.59 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Osnabruck win2.352.84
Draw3.303.88
Braunschweig win2.802.56
Over 2.5 goals1.701.80
Under 2.5 goals2.102.26

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Osnabruck win2.84
Draw3.87
Braunschweig win2.56
Both teams to score1.69

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.80
Over 3.5 goals3.00
Osnabruck most2.84
Braunschweig most2.56

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.75
Over 10.5 corners2.21
Osnabruck most1.95
Braunschweig most2.62

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.50
Over 4.5 cards2.08
Over 5.5 cards3.25
Osnabruck most2.53
Braunschweig most2.43

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.49
Over 8.5 SoT1.82
Over 9.5 SoT2.34
Osnabruck most2.01
Braunschweig most2.64

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots2.00
Over 28.5 shots2.65
Osnabruck most1.78
Braunschweig most2.67

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.41
Over 22.5 fouls1.76
Over 24.5 fouls2.36
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.2% Over 7.5 67.1% Over 8.5 54.9% Over 9.5 42.7%
Most: Osnabruck 49.6% Most: Braunschweig 37.9%
Osnabruck Over 4.2 51.2% Braunschweig Over 4.2 42.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.3% Over 3.5 66.8% Over 4.5 48.0%
Most: Osnabruck 39.5% Most: Braunschweig 41.2%
Osnabruck Over 1.8 65.9% Braunschweig Over 1.8 67.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Osnabruck clean sheet 22.3%
Braunschweig clean sheet 24.3%
Osnabruck win to nil 16.2%
Braunschweig win to nil 18.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 35.2% draw 25.8% away 39.0%
double_chance
1X 61.0% 12 74.2% X2 64.8%
dnb
home 47.4% away 52.6%
btts
yes 59.3% no 40.7%
clean_sheet
home 22.3% away 24.4%
win_to_nil
home 16.3% away 18.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.7% home_by_2 10.4% home_by_3plus 6.1%
away_by_1 19.8% away_by_2 11.8% away_by_3plus 7.4%
correct_score
0-0 6.0% 0-1 7.6% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 1.2% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.1% 1-1 12.1% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 4.3% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.4% 2-1 8.1% 2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.6% 3-1 3.8% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.0% under_0.5 6.0% over_1.5 79.3%
under_1.5 20.7% over_2.5 55.7% under_2.5 44.3%
over_3.5 33.3% under_3.5 66.7% over_4.5 17.0%
under_4.5 83.0% over_5.5 7.5% under_5.5 92.5%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.3%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 17.0% under_2.5 83.0%
team_away
over_0.5 77.7% under_0.5 22.3% over_1.5 44.2%
under_1.5 55.8% over_2.5 19.1% under_2.5 80.9%
most
home 35.2% draw 25.8% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.1% away_+2.5 93.9% home_-1.5 16.5%
away_+1.5 83.5% home_-0.5 35.2% away_+0.5 64.8%
home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0% home_+1.5 80.8%
away_-1.5 19.2% home_+2.5 92.6% away_-2.5 7.4%
total_exact
exact_0 6.0% exact_1 14.7% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.3% exact_5 9.5%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 2.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.1% draw 32.6% away 33.3%
total
over_0.5 84.0% under_0.5 16.0% over_1.5 54.6%
under_1.5 45.4% over_2.5 27.7% under_2.5 72.3%
btts
yes 35.9% no 64.1%
total_exact
exact_0 16.0% exact_1 29.4% exact_2 26.9%
exact_3 16.4% exact_4plus 11.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.7% draw 39.1% away 24.2%
total
over_0.5 73.6% under_0.5 26.4% over_1.5 38.5%
under_1.5 61.5% over_2.5 15.0% under_2.5 85.0%
btts
yes 23.1% no 76.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.3% H/D 4.5% H/A 1.4%
D/H 11.9% D/D 12.7% D/A 7.9%
A/H 2.8% A/D 6.2% A/A 24.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.0% under_7.5 21.1% over_8.5 68.6%
under_8.5 31.4% over_9.5 57.0% under_9.5 43.0%
over_10.5 45.3% under_10.5 54.7% over_11.5 34.4%
under_11.5 65.6% over_12.5 24.9% under_12.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.9% under_3.5 24.1% over_4.5 61.1%
under_4.5 38.9% over_5.5 45.7% under_5.5 54.3%
team_away
over_3.5 68.0% under_3.5 32.0% over_4.5 51.4%
under_4.5 48.6% over_5.5 35.9% under_5.5 64.1%
most
home 51.3% draw 10.6% away 38.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.1% away_+3.5 77.9% home_-1.5 40.6%
away_+1.5 59.4% home_-0.5 51.3% away_+0.5 48.7%
home_+0.5 61.9% away_-0.5 38.1% home_+1.5 71.6%
away_-1.5 28.4% home_+3.5 86.6% away_-3.5 13.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 74.3% under_22.5 25.7% over_24.5 62.6%
under_24.5 37.4% over_26.5 50.0% under_26.5 50.0%
over_28.5 37.7% under_28.5 62.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.8% under_10.5 22.3% over_12.5 61.8%
under_12.5 38.2% over_14.5 44.6% under_14.5 55.4%
team_away
over_10.5 66.9% under_10.5 33.1% over_12.5 48.5%
under_12.5 51.5% over_14.5 31.5% under_14.5 68.5%
most
home 56.3% draw 6.2% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.5% away_+4.5 68.5% home_-2.5 43.6%
away_+2.5 56.4% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5% home_+2.5 73.9%
away_-2.5 26.1% home_+4.5 83.2% away_-4.5 16.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.2% under_6.5 21.8% over_7.5 67.1%
under_7.5 32.9% over_8.5 54.9% under_8.5 45.1%
over_9.5 42.7% under_9.5 57.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 51.2%
under_4.5 48.8% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.8%
team_away
over_3.5 60.8% under_3.5 39.2% over_4.5 42.8%
under_4.5 57.2% over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.6%
most
home 49.6% draw 12.4% away 38.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.3% away_+2.5 73.7% home_-0.5 49.6%
away_+0.5 50.4% home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 38.0%
home_+2.5 82.5% away_-2.5 17.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.3% under_2.5 16.7% over_3.5 66.8%
under_3.5 33.2% over_4.5 48.0% under_4.5 52.0%
over_5.5 30.8% under_5.5 69.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 65.9% under_1.5 34.1% over_2.5 39.3%
under_2.5 60.7%
team_away
over_1.5 67.0% under_1.5 33.0% over_2.5 40.5%
under_2.5 59.5%
most
home 39.5% draw 19.3% away 41.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.7% away_+1.5 77.3% home_-0.5 39.5%
away_+0.5 60.5% home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.2%
home_+1.5 75.9% away_-1.5 24.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 70.8% under_20.5 29.2% over_22.5 56.8%
under_22.5 43.2% over_24.5 42.4% under_24.5 57.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 69.1% under_9.5 30.9% over_11.5 48.4%
under_11.5 51.6% over_13.5 29.4% under_13.5 70.6%
team_away
over_9.5 73.2% under_9.5 26.8% over_11.5 53.4%
under_11.5 46.6% over_13.5 34.0% under_13.5 66.0%
most
home 42.8% draw 7.3% away 49.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.2% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-0.5 42.8%
away_+0.5 57.2% home_+2.5 64.5% away_-2.5 35.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.4% no 83.6%
home
yes 8.9% no 91.1%
away
yes 8.2% no 91.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Osnabruck predictions · Braunschweig predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaOsnabruckBraunschweigTrack record