Hertha vs Magdeburg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Hertha vs Magdeburg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

2. Bundesliga
Hertha

WLWWW

Full time2-1Sun, 6 Sep 202612:30UK
Magdeburg

WLLWW

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Hertha or draw

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Hertha 2-1 Magdeburg
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
11 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Hertha at 48.4%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 64.5% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 84.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 57.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 64.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 83.4% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.1% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 66.9% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 65.6% and it landed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 71.2% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 85.7% and it missed.

Match data Hertha Magdeburg
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 11 18
Shots on target 5 5
Corners 5 7
Yellow cards 3 3
Red cards 1 1
Fouls 17 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
HerthaWin probability
48.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Hertha or draw71.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Over 8.5 corners66.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.50

Model read

▾

"Hertha or Magdeburg? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Our engine prices Hertha at 48% for 6 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The market broadly agrees, pricing Hertha at 50%. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 65%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Hertha, 1 draws and 2 for Magdeburg, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Recent form reads W4 D0 L2 for Hertha against W4 D0 L2 for Magdeburg. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.037 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Over 11.5 corners35.9%@ 2.79
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners56.3%@ 1.78
Draw or Magdeburg51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.2%@ 9.77
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.80
1-2 correct score6.9%@ 14.47

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Hertha

48.4%-1.2%

Draw

23.3%-1.9%

Magdeburg

28.3%+3.1%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.037 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.9%

High probability

Over 2.564.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes64.9%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.3%

Good chance

Over 10.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.9%

Toss-up

Most cornersHertha48.1%Magdeburg41.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.576.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.565.6%

Strong chance

Over 26.553.2%

Good chance

Over 28.540.9%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.9%2.564.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.564.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

HerthaWLWWW
MagdeburgWLLWW

Last 5 meetings: Hertha 2 · 1 draws · Magdeburg 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-05-03Magdeburg 1-0 Hertha
2025-12-07Hertha 0-2 Magdeburg
2025-04-25Hertha 1-1 Magdeburg
2024-11-29Magdeburg 1-3 Hertha
2024-02-16Hertha 3-2 Magdeburg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

HerthaMagdeburg
League position#2 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L3-0-02-0-1
Current streakW3W2
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season11

League averages this season: 3.59 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Hertha win1.902.07
Draw3.604.29
Magdeburg win3.603.53
Over 2.5 goals1.481.55
Under 2.5 goals2.602.82

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Hertha win2.06
Draw4.30
Magdeburg win3.53
Both teams to score1.54

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.55
Over 3.5 goals2.36
Over 4.5 goals4.15
Hertha most2.06
Magdeburg most3.53

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.72
Over 10.5 corners2.16
Hertha most2.08
Magdeburg most2.43

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.49
Over 4.5 cards2.08
Over 5.5 cards3.24
Hertha most2.86
Magdeburg most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.68
Over 9.5 SoT2.10
Hertha most1.95
Magdeburg most2.73

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.30
Over 24.5 shots1.52
Over 26.5 shots1.88
Over 28.5 shots2.45
Hertha most1.81
Magdeburg most2.60

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40
Over 22.5 fouls1.75
Over 24.5 fouls2.33
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.4% Over 7.5 71.2% Over 8.5 59.6% Over 9.5 47.5%
Most: Hertha 51.4% Most: Magdeburg 36.6%
Hertha Over 4.2 55.7% Magdeburg Over 4.2 45.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.4% Over 3.5 66.9% Over 4.5 48.1%
Most: Hertha 35.0% Most: Magdeburg 45.9%
Hertha Over 1.8 62.9% Magdeburg Over 1.8 69.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Hertha clean sheet 23.9%
Magdeburg clean sheet 14.9%
Hertha win to nil 19.8%
Magdeburg win to nil 10.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.4% draw 23.3% away 28.3%
double_chance
1X 71.7% 12 76.7% X2 51.6%
dnb
home 63.1% away 36.9%
btts
yes 65.0% no 35.1%
clean_sheet
home 24.2% away 15.0%
win_to_nil
home 20.1% away 10.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.9% home_by_2 14.8% home_by_3plus 12.8%
away_by_1 15.5% away_by_2 8.2% away_by_3plus 4.6%
correct_score
0-0 4.1% 0-1 4.7% 0-2 3.6%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 6.4% 1-1 10.2% 1-2 6.9%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.5% 2-1 9.3% 2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.1% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 4.1% 3-1 5.9% 3-2 4.2%
3-3 2.0% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 2.0% 4-1 2.8% 4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.9% under_0.5 4.1% over_1.5 84.9%
under_1.5 15.1% over_2.5 64.5% under_2.5 35.6%
over_3.5 42.4% under_3.5 57.6% over_4.5 24.1%
under_4.5 75.9% over_5.5 12.0% under_5.5 88.0%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 85.1% under_0.5 15.0% over_1.5 56.7%
under_1.5 43.3% over_2.5 29.7% under_2.5 70.3%
team_away
over_0.5 75.8% under_0.5 24.2% over_1.5 41.4%
under_1.5 58.6% over_2.5 17.1% under_2.5 82.9%
most
home 48.4% draw 23.3% away 28.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.8% away_+2.5 87.3% home_-1.5 27.5%
away_+1.5 72.5% home_-0.5 48.4% away_+0.5 51.6%
home_+0.5 71.7% away_-0.5 28.3% home_+1.5 87.2%
away_-1.5 12.8% home_+2.5 95.4% away_-2.5 4.6%
total_exact
exact_0 4.1% exact_1 11.0% exact_2 20.4%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 18.3% exact_5 12.2%
exact_6 6.7% exact_7plus 5.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.9% draw 34.2% away 19.9%
total
over_0.5 79.3% under_0.5 20.7% over_1.5 46.8%
under_1.5 53.3% over_2.5 21.1% under_2.5 78.9%
btts
yes 27.4% no 72.7%
total_exact
exact_0 20.7% exact_1 32.6% exact_2 25.7%
exact_3 13.5% exact_4plus 7.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.9% draw 32.9% away 31.3%
total
over_0.5 83.4% under_0.5 16.6% over_1.5 53.7%
under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.9% under_2.5 73.1%
btts
yes 35.1% no 64.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 35.8% H/D 6.8% H/A 3.3%
D/H 12.3% D/D 11.2% D/A 10.7%
A/H 2.1% A/D 3.8% A/A 13.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.7% under_7.5 20.3% over_8.5 69.5%
under_8.5 30.5% over_9.5 58.1% under_9.5 41.9%
over_10.5 46.4% under_10.5 53.6% over_11.5 35.4%
under_11.5 64.6% over_12.5 25.7% under_12.5 74.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.8% under_3.5 25.3% over_4.5 59.6%
under_4.5 40.4% over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.9%
team_away
over_3.5 70.6% under_3.5 29.4% over_4.5 54.5%
under_4.5 45.5% over_5.5 38.9% under_5.5 61.1%
most
home 48.2% draw 10.6% away 41.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.0% away_+3.5 80.1% home_-1.5 37.7%
away_+1.5 62.3% home_-0.5 48.2% away_+0.5 51.8%
home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.2% home_+1.5 68.8%
away_-1.5 31.2% home_+3.5 84.7% away_-3.5 15.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 76.8% under_22.5 23.2% over_24.5 65.6%
under_24.5 34.4% over_26.5 53.2% under_26.5 46.8%
over_28.5 40.9% under_28.5 59.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.9% under_10.5 21.1% over_12.5 63.3%
under_12.5 36.7% over_14.5 46.3% under_14.5 53.7%
team_away
over_10.5 69.5% under_10.5 30.5% over_12.5 51.5%
under_12.5 48.5% over_14.5 34.3% under_14.5 65.7%
most
home 55.4% draw 6.2% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.9% away_+4.5 69.1% home_-2.5 42.8%
away_+2.5 57.2% home_-0.5 55.4% away_+0.5 44.6%
home_+0.5 61.6% away_-0.5 38.4% home_+2.5 73.0%
away_-2.5 27.0% home_+4.5 82.4% away_-4.5 17.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.4% under_6.5 18.6% over_7.5 71.2%
under_7.5 28.8% over_8.5 59.6% under_8.5 40.4%
over_9.5 47.6% under_9.5 52.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.1% under_3.5 27.9% over_4.5 55.7%
under_4.5 44.3% over_5.5 39.6% under_5.5 60.4%
team_away
over_3.5 62.9% under_3.5 37.1% over_4.5 45.1%
under_4.5 54.9% over_5.5 29.4% under_5.5 70.6%
most
home 51.4% draw 12.0% away 36.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.2% away_+2.5 71.8% home_-0.5 51.4%
away_+0.5 48.6% home_+0.5 63.4% away_-0.5 36.6%
home_+2.5 83.0% away_-2.5 17.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.4% under_2.5 16.6% over_3.5 66.9%
under_3.5 33.1% over_4.5 48.1% under_4.5 51.9%
over_5.5 30.9% under_5.5 69.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.9% under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 35.9%
under_2.5 64.1%
team_away
over_1.5 69.9% under_1.5 30.1% over_2.5 43.9%
under_2.5 56.1%
most
home 35.0% draw 19.1% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.2% away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 35.0%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 45.9%
home_+1.5 72.1% away_-1.5 27.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.2% under_20.5 28.8% over_22.5 57.2%
under_22.5 42.8% over_24.5 42.8% under_24.5 57.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.7% under_9.5 28.3% over_11.5 51.6%
under_11.5 48.4% over_13.5 32.3% under_13.5 67.8%
team_away
over_9.5 71.2% under_9.5 28.8% over_11.5 50.9%
under_11.5 49.1% over_13.5 31.6% under_13.5 68.4%
most
home 46.8% draw 7.3% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.4% away_+3.5 73.6% home_-0.5 46.8%
away_+0.5 53.2% home_+2.5 68.1% away_-2.5 31.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
home
yes 10.9% no 89.1%
away
yes 3.9% no 96.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Hertha predictions · Magdeburg predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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