League TwoGrimsby vs Exeter Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.0% for over 2.5 to 17.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. On the card count, Exeter are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 54.1%, with a level count at 20.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.5% | 82.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
44.4%
19.2%
65.2%
38.5%
Card handicap
| Grimsby line | Grimsby | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.6% | 88.4% |
| -0.5 | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| +0.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| +1.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.2% | 60.8% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | B Atkinson | 2 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Grimsby | C Brook | 2 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Grimsby | M Coy | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Exeter | C Brook | 3 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Exeter | T Reeves | 3 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Exeter | C Sarginson | 2 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Grimsby vs Exeter. The model leans toward Exeter for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.3%Over 3.5 cards17.4%Any red card44.4%Grimsby over 1.5 cards65.2%Exeter over 1.5 cards54.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Grimsby over 1.5 cards sits at 44.4% and Exeter at 65.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.4% (Grimsby 2.8%, Exeter 15.0%). Grimsby’s most frequent referee this season, B Atkinson, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Grimsby vs Exeter?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.3% for Grimsby vs Exeter.
Will there be a red card in Grimsby vs Exeter?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Grimsby vs Exeter?
Before kickoff, the model rated Exeter to pick up more cards at 54.1%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.