Gillingham vs Walsall: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Walsall
Gillingham or draw
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Walsall at 39.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.2% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 52.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Gillingham versus Walsall in the League Two on 15 August 2026 is finely balanced. Walsall edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. Our number sits above the market's 30% for Walsall. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Gillingham, 4 draws and 0 for Walsall, averaging 1.8 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Gillingham W2 D1 L3, Walsall W1 D1 L4. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.30)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
32.5%-11.1%
27.9%+1.1%
39.6%+10.0%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.30)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gillingham 1 · 4 draws · Walsall 0 · 1.8 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
45.7%47.8%
54.3%52.2%
23.9%23.9%
League averages this season: 2.58 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.3% | Over 7.5 | 57.1% | Over 8.5 | 44.8% | Over 9.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gillingham | 44.3% | Most: Walsall | 43.0% | ||||
| Gillingham Over 4.2 | 40.4% | Walsall Over 4.2 | 39.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.0% | Over 3.5 | 51.2% | Over 4.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gillingham | 37.7% | Most: Walsall | 40.8% | ||
| Gillingham Over 1.8 | 54.5% | Walsall Over 1.8 | 56.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Gillingham clean sheet | 25.9% |
|---|---|
| Walsall clean sheet | 30.1% |
| Gillingham win to nil | 17.5% |
| Walsall win to nil | 21.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 32.5% | draw | 27.9% | away | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 60.4% | 12 | 72.1% | X2 | 67.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 45.1% | away | 54.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.3% | no | 47.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.0% | away | 30.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 17.5% | away | 21.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.7% | home_by_2 | 9.3% | home_by_3plus | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.1% | away_by_2 | 11.8% | away_by_3plus | 6.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 0-1 | 9.9% | 0-2 | 7.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.2% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 1-3 | 3.8% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.6% | 2-1 | 7.6% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.3% | 3-1 | 3.0% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.5% | under_0.5 | 8.5% | over_1.5 | 72.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.1% | over_2.5 | 46.8% | under_2.5 | 53.2% |
| over_3.5 | 25.3% | under_3.5 | 74.7% | over_4.5 | 11.5% |
| under_4.5 | 88.5% | over_5.5 | 4.5% | under_5.5 | 95.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 69.8% | under_0.5 | 30.2% | over_1.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.3% | over_2.5 | 12.0% | under_2.5 | 88.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.0% | under_0.5 | 26.0% | over_1.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.0% | over_2.5 | 15.4% | under_2.5 | 84.6% |
most
| home | 32.5% | draw | 27.9% | away | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.5% | away_+2.5 | 95.5% | home_-1.5 | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.2% | home_-0.5 | 32.5% | away_+0.5 | 67.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.4% | away_-0.5 | 39.6% | home_+1.5 | 81.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.5% | home_+2.5 | 93.3% | away_-2.5 | 6.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.5% | exact_1 | 18.7% | exact_2 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.7% | exact_5 | 7.0% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 19.6% | draw | 47.1% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 61.9% | under_0.5 | 38.1% | over_1.5 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.9% | over_2.5 | 7.4% | under_2.5 | 92.6% |
btts
| yes | 14.0% | no | 86.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 38.1% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.7% | exact_4plus | 1.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 32.9% | draw | 35.3% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.8% | under_0.5 | 20.2% | over_1.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.5% | over_2.5 | 21.6% | under_2.5 | 78.4% |
btts
| yes | 30.3% | no | 69.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 14.2% | H/D | 3.8% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.5% | D/D | 16.6% | D/A | 15.0% |
| A/H | 2.8% | A/D | 6.1% | A/A | 24.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.3% | under_7.5 | 26.7% | over_8.5 | 62.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.9% | over_9.5 | 50.2% | under_9.5 | 49.8% |
| over_10.5 | 38.9% | under_10.5 | 61.2% | over_11.5 | 28.7% |
| under_11.5 | 71.3% | over_12.5 | 20.3% | under_12.5 | 79.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.6% | under_3.5 | 25.5% | over_4.5 | 59.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.3% | over_5.5 | 44.7% | under_5.5 | 55.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.9% | under_3.5 | 40.1% | over_4.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.2% | over_5.5 | 28.2% | under_5.5 | 71.8% |
most
| home | 56.0% | draw | 10.5% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.3% | away_+3.5 | 74.7% | home_-1.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.0% | away_+0.5 | 44.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.5% | home_+1.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.4% | away_-3.5 | 10.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.6% | under_22.5 | 43.4% | over_24.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.3% | over_26.5 | 31.9% | under_26.5 | 68.1% |
| over_28.5 | 21.9% | under_28.5 | 78.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.2% | under_10.5 | 34.8% | over_12.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 52.5% | over_14.5 | 31.4% | under_14.5 | 68.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.1% | under_10.5 | 45.9% | over_12.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.0% | over_14.5 | 21.5% | under_14.5 | 78.5% |
most
| home | 54.9% | draw | 6.4% | away | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 29.8% | away_+4.5 | 70.2% | home_-2.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 58.1% | home_-0.5 | 54.9% | away_+0.5 | 45.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.3% | away_-0.5 | 38.7% | home_+2.5 | 73.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.9% | home_+4.5 | 82.7% | away_-4.5 | 17.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.3% | under_6.5 | 30.7% | over_7.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.9% | over_8.5 | 44.8% | under_8.5 | 55.2% |
| over_9.5 | 33.5% | under_9.5 | 66.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 57.6% | under_3.5 | 42.4% | over_4.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.6% | over_5.5 | 26.1% | under_5.5 | 73.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.7% | under_3.5 | 43.3% | over_4.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.5% | over_5.5 | 25.3% | under_5.5 | 74.7% |
most
| home | 44.3% | draw | 12.7% | away | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.9% | away_+2.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.7% | home_+0.5 | 57.0% | away_-0.5 | 43.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 79.0% | away_-2.5 | 21.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.0% | under_2.5 | 28.0% | over_3.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 48.8% | over_4.5 | 31.9% | under_4.5 | 68.1% |
| over_5.5 | 17.4% | under_5.5 | 82.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.5% | under_1.5 | 45.5% | over_2.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 56.8% | under_1.5 | 43.2% | over_2.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.2% |
most
| home | 37.7% | draw | 21.5% | away | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.7% | away_+1.5 | 80.3% | home_-0.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.3% | home_+0.5 | 59.2% | away_-0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.9% | away_-1.5 | 22.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 67.7% | under_20.5 | 32.3% | over_22.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 47.5% | over_24.5 | 37.5% | under_24.5 | 62.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 71.7% | under_9.5 | 28.3% | over_11.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 49.6% | over_13.5 | 30.3% | under_13.5 | 69.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 67.3% | under_9.5 | 32.7% | over_11.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 54.8% | over_13.5 | 25.8% | under_13.5 | 74.2% |
most
| home | 49.8% | draw | 7.8% | away | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.7% | away_+3.5 | 72.3% | home_-0.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.2% | home_+2.5 | 71.9% | away_-2.5 | 28.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.5% | no | 89.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.7% | no | 94.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Gillingham predictions · Walsall predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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