Grimsby vs Exeter: model prediction
League TwoGrimsby or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Grimsby at 62.4%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.5% and it missed (1 goals). We called No at 50.7% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Grimsby at 62% against Exeter, League Two, 15 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Grimsby than the market (54%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. • The run in: Grimsby arrive W4 D1 L1, Exeter W3 D1 L2. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Grimsby, 0 draws and 3 for Exeter at 3.6 goals per match. Fatigue may matter, with Grimsby 1456 days shorter on recovery than Exeter. As a promoted side, Exeter carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
62.4%+8.8%
22.4%-2.7%
15.2%-6.1%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Grimsby 2 · 0 draws · Exeter 3 · 3.6 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.4% | Over 7.5 | 53.8% | Over 8.5 | 41.5% | Over 9.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Grimsby | 59.9% | Most: Exeter | 28.1% | ||||
| Grimsby Over 4.2 | 48.8% | Exeter Over 4.2 | 26.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.0% | Over 3.5 | 51.3% | Over 4.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Grimsby | 25.7% | Most: Exeter | 54.1% | ||
| Grimsby Over 1.8 | 44.4% | Exeter Over 1.8 | 65.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Grimsby clean sheet | 42.3% |
|---|---|
| Exeter clean sheet | 14.5% |
| Grimsby win to nil | 35.6% |
| Exeter win to nil | 7.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 62.4% | draw | 22.4% | away | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 84.8% | 12 | 77.6% | X2 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 80.4% | away | 19.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.3% | no | 50.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 43.0% | away | 14.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 36.2% | away | 7.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.4% | home_by_2 | 19.4% | home_by_3plus | 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.4% | away_by_2 | 3.7% | away_by_3plus | 1.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 0-1 | 4.7% | 0-2 | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.6% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | 1-1 | 10.7% | 1-2 | 4.3% |
| 1-3 | 1.2% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.2% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 7.5% | 3-1 | 6.3% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 3.6% | 4-1 | 3.1% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.4% | 5-1 | 1.2% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.3% | under_0.5 | 6.7% | over_1.5 | 77.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.0% | over_2.5 | 52.5% | under_2.5 | 47.5% |
| over_3.5 | 30.3% | under_3.5 | 69.7% | over_4.5 | 14.9% |
| under_4.5 | 85.1% | over_5.5 | 6.3% | under_5.5 | 93.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 85.5% | under_0.5 | 14.5% | over_1.5 | 57.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 42.4% | over_2.5 | 30.5% | under_2.5 | 69.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 57.1% | under_0.5 | 43.0% | over_1.5 | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 79.2% | over_2.5 | 5.4% | under_2.5 | 94.6% |
most
| home | 62.4% | draw | 22.4% | away | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 18.7% | away_+2.5 | 81.4% | home_-1.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.4% | away_+0.5 | 37.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 84.8% | away_-0.5 | 15.2% | home_+1.5 | 95.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.9% | home_+2.5 | 98.9% | away_-2.5 | 1.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.7% | exact_1 | 16.3% | exact_2 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.4% | exact_5 | 8.6% |
| exact_6 | 4.0% | exact_7plus | 2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.3% | draw | 38.6% | away | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.7% | under_0.5 | 26.4% | over_1.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.5% | over_2.5 | 15.1% | under_2.5 | 84.9% |
btts
| yes | 22.4% | no | 77.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.4% | exact_1 | 35.1% | exact_2 | 23.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.4% | exact_4plus | 4.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.4% | draw | 38.5% | away | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.4% | under_0.5 | 25.6% | over_1.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.5% | over_2.5 | 15.8% | under_2.5 | 84.2% |
btts
| yes | 23.8% | no | 76.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.3% | H/D | 5.4% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.5% | D/D | 14.9% | D/A | 9.3% |
| A/H | 2.1% | A/D | 4.5% | A/A | 14.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 76.5% | under_7.5 | 23.5% | over_8.5 | 65.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 34.1% | over_9.5 | 54.4% | under_9.5 | 45.6% |
| over_10.5 | 43.0% | under_10.5 | 57.0% | over_11.5 | 32.5% |
| under_11.5 | 67.5% | over_12.5 | 23.5% | under_12.5 | 76.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.8% | under_3.5 | 22.2% | over_4.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.1% | over_5.5 | 49.2% | under_5.5 | 50.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.3% | over_4.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.4% | over_5.5 | 29.0% | under_5.5 | 71.0% |
most
| home | 58.5% | draw | 10.1% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.0% | away_+3.5 | 72.0% | home_-1.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.2% | home_-0.5 | 58.5% | away_+0.5 | 41.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% | home_+1.5 | 77.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.6% | home_+3.5 | 90.1% | away_-3.5 | 9.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.4% | under_22.5 | 43.6% | over_24.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.4% | over_26.5 | 31.7% | under_26.5 | 68.3% |
| over_28.5 | 21.7% | under_28.5 | 78.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.4% | under_10.5 | 28.6% | over_12.5 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.3% | over_14.5 | 38.2% | under_14.5 | 61.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.0% | under_10.5 | 54.0% | over_12.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 71.6% | over_14.5 | 15.6% | under_14.5 | 84.4% |
most
| home | 65.3% | draw | 5.9% | away | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.6% | away_+4.5 | 60.4% | home_-2.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.4% | home_-0.5 | 65.3% | away_+0.5 | 34.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.2% | away_-0.5 | 28.8% | home_+2.5 | 81.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.7% | home_+4.5 | 88.8% | away_-4.5 | 11.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.4% | under_6.5 | 33.6% | over_7.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.2% | over_8.5 | 41.5% | under_8.5 | 58.5% |
| over_9.5 | 30.5% | under_9.5 | 69.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.3% | under_3.5 | 34.7% | over_4.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.2% | over_5.5 | 33.7% | under_5.5 | 66.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.5% | under_3.5 | 57.5% | over_4.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.0% | over_5.5 | 14.5% | under_5.5 | 85.5% |
most
| home | 59.9% | draw | 12.0% | away | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.6% | away_+2.5 | 65.4% | home_-0.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.1% | home_+0.5 | 71.9% | away_-0.5 | 28.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.1% | away_-2.5 | 10.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.0% | under_2.5 | 28.0% | over_3.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 48.7% | over_4.5 | 31.9% | under_4.5 | 68.1% |
| over_5.5 | 17.5% | under_5.5 | 82.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 44.4% | under_1.5 | 55.6% | over_2.5 | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 65.2% | under_1.5 | 34.8% | over_2.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.5% |
most
| home | 25.7% | draw | 20.2% | away | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.6% | away_+1.5 | 88.4% | home_-0.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 74.3% | home_+0.5 | 45.9% | away_-0.5 | 54.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 66.9% | away_-1.5 | 33.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 69.3% | under_20.5 | 30.7% | over_22.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 45.7% | over_24.5 | 39.2% | under_24.5 | 60.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 57.1% | under_9.5 | 43.0% | over_11.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.5% | over_13.5 | 17.4% | under_13.5 | 82.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.0% | under_9.5 | 19.0% | over_11.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.3% | over_13.5 | 42.4% | under_13.5 | 57.6% |
most
| home | 27.2% | draw | 6.8% | away | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.7% | away_+3.5 | 88.3% | home_-0.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.8% | home_+2.5 | 49.1% | away_-2.5 | 50.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.4% | no | 82.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.8% | no | 97.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.0% | no | 85.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Grimsby predictions · Exeter predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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