AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
GironaGironaWWLWW
Full time0-0Sun, 4 Oct 20264/1020:00UK
MallorcaMallorcaWDWWL

Girona 0-0 Mallorca shots: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined52.1%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined47.9%

Result

Girona0-0Mallorca
Shots in this match: Girona vs Mallorca
This match Girona Mallorca Total
Shots 16 9 25
Shots on target 5 0 5
Over 24.5Over 7.5

We called Over 24.5 at 52.1% and it landed (25 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 63.4% and it missed (5 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots52.1%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Girona.

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 64.8% 35.2%
24.5 shots 52.1% 47.9%
26.5 shots 39.5% 60.5%
28.5 shots 28.2% 71.8%

Who takes more shots

Girona
63.5%
Level
5.9%
Mallorca
30.6%

Team shots lines

Girona

Over 10.5
75.5%
Over 12.5
59.3%
Over 14.5
42.5%

Mallorca

Over 10.5
53.9%
Over 12.5
35.4%
Over 14.5
20.7%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 75.5% 24.5%
7.5 shots on target 63.4% 36.6%
8.5 shots on target 50.4% 49.6%
9.5 shots on target 37.8% 62.2%

Who has more on target

Girona
52.9%
Level
12.9%
Mallorca
34.2%

Team shots on target lines

Girona

Over 3.5
68.3%
Over 4.5
50.5%
Over 5.5
34.0%

Mallorca

Over 3.5
55.7%
Over 4.5
37.0%
Over 5.5
22.0%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Girona's; Mallorca gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Girona line Girona Mallorca
-4.5 38.0% 62.0%
-2.5 50.8% 49.2%
-0.5 63.5% 36.5%
+0.5 69.4% 30.6%

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Girona in their home matches and Mallorca in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

GironaGirona

Recorded 2026/27

MallorcaMallorca
This season
Statistic
Girona
Mallorca
Shots per game
15.0
12.6

Shots faced per game
13.7
11.1

Shots on target per game
5.1
4.1

On target faced per game
5.0
2.7

Girona at home, Mallorca away

Not enough home and away matches with shot data this season yet.

By half, this season

No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.

Last six league matches
Statistic
Girona
Mallorca
Shots per game
13.0
13.5

Shots faced per game
15.2
11.0

Matches
6
6

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 52.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 64.8% for over 22.5 to 28.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. Head to head on shots, Girona are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.5%, with a level count at 5.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Girona over 12.5 shots sits at 59.3% and Mallorca at 35.4%. This season Girona have averaged 15.0 shots a game and Mallorca 12.6.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

52.1%Over 24.5 shots
63.5%Most shots: Girona
59.3%Girona over 12.5 shots
35.4%Mallorca over 12.5 shots
63.4%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.1% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderGirona are the pick to have more shots at 63.5%, shot volume follows the side that keeps the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 24.5 shots: over sits at 52.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 24.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many shots in Girona vs Mallorca?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 52.1% for Girona vs Mallorca.
Which team will have more shots in Girona vs Mallorca?
Before kickoff, the model rated Girona to take more shots at 63.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónGirona fixtures and statsMallorca fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.