Segunda División
Girona vs 
Las Palmas Cards
Result
Settled, final score 5-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 68.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 84.7% for over 2.5 to 33.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.3%. Head to head on cards, Girona are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 18.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
70.1%
44.1%
65.7%
39.0%
Card handicap
| Girona line | Girona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| -0.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| +0.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| +1.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.3% | 38.7% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Girona vs Las Palmas. The model leans toward Girona for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
68.9%Over 3.5 cards14.1%Any red card70.1%Girona over 1.5 cards65.7%Las Palmas over 1.5 cards73.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Girona over 1.5 cards sits at 70.1% and Las Palmas at 65.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.1% (Girona 7.6%, Las Palmas 7.0%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 68.9% for Girona vs Las Palmas.
Will there be a red card in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated Girona to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.