Leganes vs Eldense: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónLeganes or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Leganes at 51.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 57.9% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 54.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The model leans Leganes at 51% when Leganes host Eldense in the Segunda División on 29 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 50%. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 42% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. • Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Leganes against W1 D3 L2 for Eldense. • History adds colour: across the last 2 meetings it is 1 wins for Leganes, 1 draws and 0 for Eldense at 2.5 goals per match. Eldense are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Munir drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.014 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
51.0%+1.4%
27.5%+1.2%
21.5%-2.6%
value_gap +0.014 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Leganes 1 · 1 draws · Eldense 0 · 2.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
LeganesEldenseLeague averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 41% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 6.58
@ 3.19
@ 4.59
@ 32.26
@ 2.60
@ 3.97
@ 3.92
@ 2.36
@ 2.29
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.2% | Over 7.5 | 60.6% | Over 8.5 | 47.3% | Over 9.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Leganes | 55.2% | Most: Eldense | 31.9% | ||||
| Leganes Over 4.2 | 50.0% | Eldense Over 4.2 | 33.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 86.8% | Over 3.5 | 72.3% | Over 4.5 | 54.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Leganes | 37.4% | Most: Eldense | 44.1% | ||
| Leganes Over 1.8 | 68.3% | Eldense Over 1.8 | 72.4% |
Leganes: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munir | 2.28 | 0.98 | 0.43 | 31.3% | 21.8% | 15.2% |
| Miguel De la Fuente | 1.87 | 0.94 | 0.06 | 38.5% | 25.2% | 3.1% |
| Raba | 1.96 | 0.73 | 0.39 | 42.4% | 43.6% | 25.5% |
| Diego García | 2.16 | 0.62 | 0.23 | 26.6% | 29.2% | 10.8% |
| Juan Cruz | 1.31 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 32.3% | 26.4% | 9.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Leganes clean sheet | 41.6% |
|---|---|
| Eldense clean sheet | 22.6% |
| Leganes win to nil | 31.5% |
| Eldense win to nil | 12.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 51.0% | draw | 27.5% | away | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 78.5% | 12 | 72.5% | X2 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 70.4% | away | 29.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 45.7% | no | 54.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 41.7% | away | 22.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 31.7% | away | 12.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.7% | home_by_2 | 15.8% | home_by_3plus | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.2% | away_by_2 | 5.4% | away_by_3plus | 1.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.0% | 0-1 | 7.6% | 0-2 | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 5.4% |
| 1-3 | 1.6% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 5.2% | 3-1 | 4.5% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.6% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.0% | under_0.5 | 10.0% | over_1.5 | 69.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 31.1% | over_2.5 | 42.1% | under_2.5 | 57.9% |
| over_3.5 | 21.4% | under_3.5 | 78.6% | over_4.5 | 9.2% |
| under_4.5 | 90.8% | over_5.5 | 3.4% | under_5.5 | 96.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.5% | under_0.5 | 22.6% | over_1.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.1% | over_2.5 | 18.9% | under_2.5 | 81.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 58.3% | under_0.5 | 41.7% | over_1.5 | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.2% | over_2.5 | 5.9% | under_2.5 | 94.1% |
most
| home | 51.0% | draw | 27.5% | away | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.5% | away_+2.5 | 89.5% | home_-1.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 73.7% | home_-0.5 | 51.0% | away_+0.5 | 49.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.5% | away_-0.5 | 21.5% | home_+1.5 | 92.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.2% | home_+2.5 | 98.2% | away_-2.5 | 1.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.0% | exact_1 | 21.0% | exact_2 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.7% | exact_4 | 12.2% | exact_5 | 5.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.3% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 32.5% | draw | 49.5% | away | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 58.4% | under_0.5 | 41.6% | over_1.5 | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.1% | over_2.5 | 5.9% | under_2.5 | 94.1% |
btts
| yes | 11.9% | no | 88.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 41.6% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.7% | exact_4plus | 1.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.0% | draw | 35.7% | away | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.2% | under_0.5 | 21.8% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% | under_2.5 | 80.3% |
btts
| yes | 27.4% | no | 72.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.3% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 20.3% | D/D | 17.7% | D/A | 11.5% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 11.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.0% | under_7.5 | 27.0% | over_8.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.7% | over_9.5 | 49.0% | under_9.5 | 51.0% |
| over_10.5 | 37.3% | under_10.5 | 62.7% | over_11.5 | 27.0% |
| under_11.5 | 73.0% | over_12.5 | 18.6% | under_12.5 | 81.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.0% | under_3.5 | 26.0% | over_4.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.3% | over_5.5 | 43.2% | under_5.5 | 56.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.2% | under_3.5 | 39.8% | over_4.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.3% | over_5.5 | 27.8% | under_5.5 | 72.2% |
most
| home | 55.1% | draw | 10.8% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.0% | home_-0.5 | 55.1% | away_+0.5 | 44.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.9% | away_-0.5 | 34.1% | home_+1.5 | 75.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.5% | home_+3.5 | 89.3% | away_-3.5 | 10.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.1% | under_22.5 | 36.9% | over_24.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.7% | over_26.5 | 37.8% | under_26.5 | 62.2% |
| over_28.5 | 26.7% | under_28.5 | 73.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.0% | under_10.5 | 25.0% | over_12.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.3% | over_14.5 | 41.8% | under_14.5 | 58.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.0% | under_10.5 | 48.0% | over_12.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.5% | over_14.5 | 19.2% | under_14.5 | 80.8% |
most
| home | 64.4% | draw | 5.9% | away | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 38.7% | away_+4.5 | 61.3% | home_-2.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.4% | home_-0.5 | 64.4% | away_+0.5 | 35.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.3% | away_-0.5 | 29.7% | home_+2.5 | 80.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.5% | home_+4.5 | 88.2% | away_-4.5 | 11.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.2% | under_6.5 | 26.8% | over_7.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.4% | over_8.5 | 47.3% | under_8.5 | 52.7% |
| over_9.5 | 34.9% | under_9.5 | 65.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.9% | under_3.5 | 32.1% | over_4.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.0% | over_5.5 | 33.5% | under_5.5 | 66.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.8% | under_3.5 | 48.2% | over_4.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.9% | over_5.5 | 18.9% | under_5.5 | 81.1% |
most
| home | 55.2% | draw | 12.9% | away | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.4% | away_+2.5 | 70.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.8% | home_+0.5 | 68.1% | away_-0.5 | 31.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.4% | away_-2.5 | 12.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 86.8% | under_2.5 | 13.2% | over_3.5 | 72.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 27.7% | over_4.5 | 54.5% | under_4.5 | 45.5% |
| over_5.5 | 37.0% | under_5.5 | 63.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 68.3% | under_1.5 | 31.7% | over_2.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 72.4% | under_1.5 | 27.6% | over_2.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.0% |
most
| home | 37.4% | draw | 18.5% | away | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.6% | away_+1.5 | 78.4% | home_-0.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.6% | home_+0.5 | 55.9% | away_-0.5 | 44.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.0% | away_-1.5 | 27.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 81.8% | under_20.5 | 18.2% | over_22.5 | 70.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 29.2% | over_24.5 | 57.9% | under_24.5 | 42.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 76.8% | under_9.5 | 23.2% | over_11.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.5% | over_13.5 | 39.5% | under_13.5 | 60.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.0% | under_9.5 | 19.1% | over_11.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 35.8% | over_13.5 | 45.5% | under_13.5 | 54.5% |
most
| home | 42.4% | draw | 6.8% | away | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-0.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.6% | home_+2.5 | 62.5% | away_-2.5 | 37.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.6% | no | 88.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.0% | no | 93.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Leganes predictions · Eldense predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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