Segunda División
Girona vs 
Las Palmas Shots
Result
Settled, final score 5-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 50.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 63.1% for over 22.5 to 26.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.2%. On the shot count, Girona are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.9%, with a level count at 5.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.6% | 73.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.8%
59.7%
42.8%
50.7%
32.3%
18.3%
Shot handicap
| Girona line | Girona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| -2.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| -0.5 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| +0.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.3% | 52.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.8% | 65.2% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Girona.
In-depth analysis
50.2%Over 24.5 shots59.7%Girona over 12.5 shots32.3%Las Palmas over 12.5 shots60.5%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Girona over 12.5 shots sits at 59.7% and Las Palmas at 32.3%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 50.2% for Girona vs Las Palmas.
Which team will have more shots in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated Girona to take more shots at 65.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.