Segunda División
Girona vs 
Las Palmas Corners
Result
Settled, final score 5-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 43.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.4% for over 7.5 to 14.9% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.0%. On the corner count, Girona are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.5%, with a level count at 11.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 32.1% | 68.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 14.9% | 85.1% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
70.9%
54.8%
39.2%
57.0%
39.4%
24.9%
Corner handicap
| Girona line | Girona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| -0.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| +0.5 | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| +1.5 | 75.6% | 24.5% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Girona.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Girona over 4.5 corners sits at 54.8% and Las Palmas at 39.4%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 43.5% for Girona vs Las Palmas.
Which team will win the corner count in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated Girona to win the corner count at 54.5%, with a level count at 11.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.