Mechelen vs Anderlecht prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

By /

Mechelen vs Anderlecht: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Pro League
Mechelen

LDLDL

Fri, 11 Sep 202619:45UK
Anderlecht

WLLWD

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Draw or Anderlecht

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AnderlechtWin probability
41.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Draw or Anderlecht67.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.48
Over 8.5 corners63.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Mechelen and Anderlecht on 11 September 2026: Anderlecht nose ahead at 42%. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Anderlecht higher (52%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. The run in: Mechelen arrive W0 D2 L4, Anderlecht W2 D1 L3. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Mechelen, 1 draws and 3 for Anderlecht at 3.4 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35
Anderlecht win41.6%@ 2.40
Over 11.5 corners33.0%@ 3.03
Medium risk

Both teams to score59.0%@ 1.69
Mechelen or draw58.5%@ 1.71
Over 2.5 goals55.5%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.29
1-2 correct score8.9%@ 11.21
0-1 correct score7.9%@ 12.59

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Mechelen

32.7%+9.6%

Draw

25.8%+1.3%

Anderlecht

41.6%-10.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.2%

High probability

Over 2.555.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.0%

Good chance

Over 10.542.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.0%

Toss-up

Most cornersMechelen50.7%Anderlecht38.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.571.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 26.549.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.7%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Mechelen10.0 taken14.8 faced
Anderlecht15.8 taken11.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.2%2.555.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Form & head-to-head

MechelenLDLDL
AnderlechtWLLWD

Last 5 meetings: Mechelen 1 · 1 draws · Anderlecht 3 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-05-17Anderlecht 2-2 Mechelen
2026-04-18Mechelen 1-2 Anderlecht
2026-03-15Mechelen 1-0 Anderlecht
2025-11-01Anderlecht 3-1 Mechelen
2025-01-26Anderlecht 4-1 Mechelen

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MechelenAnderlecht
League position#15 of 18#11 of 18
Record W-D-L0-2-32-1-2
Current streakL1D1
Points per game0.401.40
Record, home vs away0-1-10-0-2
Goals scored per game1.000.60
Goals conceded per game2.601.00
1st half goals per game0.400.20
2nd half goals per game0.600.40
Corners won per game3.87.2
Cards per game1.21.8
Fouls per game11.412.4
Red cards this season00
Shots per game10.617.2
Shots faced per game15.68.8
Shots on target per game2.84.8
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%20.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%40.0%

Rates this season:MechelenAnderlecht

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Mechelen win3.903.06
Draw3.703.88
Anderlecht win1.802.40
Over 2.5 goals1.671.80
Under 2.5 goals2.152.25

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Mechelen win3.06
Draw3.88
Anderlecht win2.41
Both teams to score1.70

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.80
Over 3.5 goals3.02
Mechelen most3.06
Anderlecht most2.41

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.34
Mechelen most1.97
Anderlecht most2.59

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.73
Over 4.5 cards2.58
Over 5.5 cards4.34
Mechelen most3.08
Anderlecht most2.10

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.47
Over 8.5 SoT1.78
Over 9.5 SoT2.25
Mechelen most2.13
Anderlecht most2.43

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.39
Over 24.5 shots1.65
Over 26.5 shots2.04
Over 28.5 shots2.65
Mechelen most1.77
Anderlecht most2.64

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.47
Over 22.5 fouls1.85
Over 24.5 fouls2.49
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 71.7% Over 24.5 60.7% Over 26.5 49.1% Over 28.5 37.7%
Most: Mechelen 56.3% Most: Anderlecht 37.9%
Mechelen Over 13.2 52.4% Anderlecht Over 13.2 39.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.4% Over 7.5 67.8% Over 8.5 56.1% Over 9.5 44.5%
Most: Mechelen 46.9% Most: Anderlecht 41.1%
Mechelen Over 4.2 50.1% Anderlecht Over 4.2 45.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.9% Over 3.5 57.9% Over 4.5 38.7%
Most: Mechelen 32.5% Most: Anderlecht 47.6%
Mechelen Over 1.8 54.5% Anderlecht Over 1.8 65.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Mechelen clean sheet 21.1%
Anderlecht clean sheet 25.8%
Mechelen win to nil 15.1%
Anderlecht win to nil 19.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.7% draw 25.8% away 41.6%
double_chance
1X 58.4% 12 74.2% X2 67.4%
dnb
home 44.0% away 56.0%
btts
yes 59.0% no 41.0%
clean_sheet
home 21.2% away 25.9%
win_to_nil
home 15.1% away 19.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.8% home_by_2 9.6% home_by_3plus 5.2%
away_by_1 20.6% away_by_2 12.6% away_by_3plus 8.4%
correct_score
0-0 6.1% 0-1 7.9% 0-2 6.6%
0-3 3.4% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.8% 1-1 12.1% 1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.6% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 5.0% 2-1 7.8% 2-2 6.0%
2-3 3.1% 2-4 1.2% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.3% 3-1 3.5% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.9% under_0.5 6.1% over_1.5 79.2%
under_1.5 20.8% over_2.5 55.5% under_2.5 44.5%
over_3.5 33.1% under_3.5 66.9% over_4.5 16.9%
under_4.5 83.1% over_5.5 7.4% under_5.5 92.6%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 74.1% under_0.5 25.9% over_1.5 39.1%
under_1.5 60.9% over_2.5 15.5% under_2.5 84.5%
team_away
over_0.5 78.8% under_0.5 21.2% over_1.5 45.9%
under_1.5 54.1% over_2.5 20.4% under_2.5 79.6%
most
home 32.7% draw 25.8% away 41.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.2% away_+2.5 94.8% home_-1.5 14.8%
away_+1.5 85.2% home_-0.5 32.7% away_+0.5 67.4%
home_+0.5 58.4% away_-0.5 41.6% home_+1.5 79.0%
away_-1.5 21.0% home_+2.5 91.6% away_-2.5 8.4%
total_exact
exact_0 6.1% exact_1 14.8% exact_2 23.7%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.2% exact_5 9.4%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 2.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.5% draw 38.0% away 29.6%
total
over_0.5 75.8% under_0.5 24.2% over_1.5 41.5%
under_1.5 58.5% over_2.5 17.1% under_2.5 82.9%
btts
yes 25.8% no 74.2%
total_exact
exact_0 24.2% exact_1 34.3% exact_2 24.4%
exact_3 11.5% exact_4plus 5.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.0% draw 36.6% away 37.5%
total
over_0.5 77.5% under_0.5 22.5% over_1.5 44.0%
under_1.5 56.1% over_2.5 18.9% under_2.5 81.1%
btts
yes 27.2% no 72.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.0% H/D 6.4% H/A 3.2%
D/H 9.9% D/D 13.9% D/A 14.2%
A/H 1.6% A/D 4.4% A/A 23.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.3% under_7.5 22.7% over_8.5 66.5%
under_8.5 33.5% over_9.5 54.7% under_9.5 45.3%
over_10.5 42.8% under_10.5 57.2% over_11.5 32.0%
under_11.5 68.0% over_12.5 22.8% under_12.5 77.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.4% under_3.5 25.6% over_4.5 59.2%
under_4.5 40.8% over_5.5 43.8% under_5.5 56.2%
team_away
over_3.5 66.7% under_3.5 33.3% over_4.5 50.0%
under_4.5 50.0% over_5.5 34.6% under_5.5 65.4%
most
home 50.8% draw 10.6% away 38.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.7% away_+3.5 78.3% home_-1.5 40.1%
away_+1.5 59.9% home_-0.5 50.8% away_+0.5 49.2%
home_+0.5 61.4% away_-0.5 38.6% home_+1.5 71.3%
away_-1.5 28.7% home_+3.5 86.4% away_-3.5 13.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 71.7% under_22.5 28.3% over_24.5 60.7%
under_24.5 39.3% over_26.5 49.1% under_26.5 50.9%
over_28.5 37.7% under_28.5 62.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.3% under_10.5 24.7% over_12.5 60.3%
under_12.5 39.7% over_14.5 44.7% under_14.5 55.4%
team_away
over_10.5 64.2% under_10.5 35.8% over_12.5 47.2%
under_12.5 52.8% over_14.5 31.8% under_14.5 68.2%
most
home 56.3% draw 5.7% away 37.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.2% away_+4.5 66.8% home_-2.5 44.6%
away_+2.5 55.4% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 37.9% home_+2.5 72.7%
away_-2.5 27.3% home_+4.5 81.6% away_-4.5 18.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.4% under_6.5 21.6% over_7.5 67.8%
under_7.5 32.2% over_8.5 56.2% under_8.5 43.9%
over_9.5 44.5% under_9.5 55.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.8% under_3.5 33.3% over_4.5 50.1%
under_4.5 49.9% over_5.5 34.7% under_5.5 65.3%
team_away
over_3.5 63.0% under_3.5 37.0% over_4.5 45.9%
under_4.5 54.1% over_5.5 30.8% under_5.5 69.2%
most
home 46.9% draw 12.0% away 41.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.0% away_+2.5 75.0% home_-0.5 46.9%
away_+0.5 53.1% home_+0.5 58.9% away_-0.5 41.1%
home_+2.5 79.5% away_-2.5 20.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.9% under_2.5 23.1% over_3.5 57.9%
under_3.5 42.1% over_4.5 38.7% under_4.5 61.3%
over_5.5 23.0% under_5.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.5% under_1.5 45.5% over_2.5 28.0%
under_2.5 72.0%
team_away
over_1.5 65.1% under_1.5 34.9% over_2.5 38.8%
under_2.5 61.2%
most
home 32.5% draw 19.9% away 47.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.8% away_+1.5 83.2% home_-0.5 32.5%
away_+0.5 67.5% home_+0.5 52.4% away_-0.5 47.6%
home_+1.5 71.4% away_-1.5 28.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 68.1% under_20.5 31.9% over_22.5 54.1%
under_22.5 45.9% over_24.5 40.1% under_24.5 59.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.9% under_9.5 43.1% over_11.5 35.8%
under_11.5 64.2% over_13.5 19.5% under_13.5 80.5%
team_away
over_9.5 78.7% under_9.5 21.3% over_11.5 61.2%
under_11.5 38.8% over_13.5 42.3% under_13.5 57.7%
most
home 29.3% draw 6.5% away 64.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 13.8% away_+3.5 86.2% home_-0.5 29.3%
away_+0.5 70.7% home_+2.5 49.9% away_-2.5 50.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.2% no 85.8%
home
yes 3.6% no 96.4%
away
yes 11.0% no 89.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Mechelen predictions · Anderlecht predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Pro LeagueMechelenAnderlechtTrack record