Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi vs 
Fenerbahce Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 73.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 87.4% for over 2.5 to 38.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.7%. Head to head on cards, Fenerbahce are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 18.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.4% | 12.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.2% | 61.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
70.8%
45.1%
71.4%
45.8%
Card handicap
| Genclerbirligi line | Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| -0.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| +0.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.6% | 14.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.5% | 38.5% |
This season (2025/26)
2.3Genclerbirligi cards per game12.8Genclerbirligi fouls per game2.6Fenerbahce cards per game12.0Fenerbahce fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce. Slightly more cards are projected for Fenerbahce for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
73.3%Over 3.5 cards20.5%Any red card70.8%Genclerbirligi over 1.5 cards71.4%Fenerbahce over 1.5 cards74.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Genclerbirligi over 1.5 cards sits at 70.8% and Fenerbahce at 71.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.5% (Genclerbirligi 15.5%, Fenerbahce 6.0%). This season Genclerbirligi have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Fenerbahce 2.6.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 73.3% for Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce.
Will there be a red card in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fenerbahce to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.