Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Fenerbahce
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Fenerbahce at 54.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 56.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 56.6% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Fenerbahce go into this Süper Lig meeting with Genclerbirligi on 15 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 54%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Fenerbahce at 69%. Caution noted. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Genclerbirligi, 1 draws and 3 for Fenerbahce, averaging 3.8 goals a game. The run in: Genclerbirligi arrive W3 D0 L3, Fenerbahce W3 D2 L1. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.12).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
22.0%+9.7%
23.8%+4.9%
54.2%-14.7%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.12)
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genclerbirligi 1 · 1 draws · Fenerbahce 3 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Genclerbirligi
Fenerbahce52.9%64.7%
50.0%61.8%
20.6%32.4%
League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 55%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 75.4% | Over 7.5 | 63.9% | Over 8.5 | 51.7% | Over 9.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Genclerbirligi | 42.1% | Most: Fenerbahce | 45.5% | ||||
| Genclerbirligi Over 4.2 | 43.6% | Fenerbahce Over 4.2 | 46.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 87.4% | Over 3.5 | 73.3% | Over 4.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Genclerbirligi | 40.3% | Most: Fenerbahce | 41.3% | ||
| Genclerbirligi Over 1.8 | 70.8% | Fenerbahce Over 1.8 | 71.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Genclerbirligi clean sheet | 15.9% |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahce clean sheet | 33.0% |
| Genclerbirligi win to nil | 10.0% |
| Fenerbahce win to nil | 27.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 22.0% | draw | 23.8% | away | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 45.8% | 12 | 76.1% | X2 | 78.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 28.8% | away | 71.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 56.6% | no | 43.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 15.9% | away | 33.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 10.1% | away | 27.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 13.5% | home_by_2 | 6.0% | home_by_3plus | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 23.0% | away_by_2 | 16.8% | away_by_3plus | 14.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.8% | 0-1 | 9.2% | 0-2 | 9.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 5.5% | 0-4 | 2.5% | 0-5 | 0.9% |
| 1-0 | 5.3% | 1-1 | 11.2% | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-3 | 6.0% | 1-4 | 2.8% | 1-5 | 1.0% |
| 2-0 | 3.2% | 2-1 | 5.9% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 3.3% | 2-4 | 1.5% | 2-5 | 0.6% |
| 3-0 | 1.2% | 3-1 | 2.2% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.3% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.2% | under_0.5 | 5.8% | over_1.5 | 79.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 20.3% | over_2.5 | 56.3% | under_2.5 | 43.7% |
| over_3.5 | 33.9% | under_3.5 | 66.1% | over_4.5 | 17.5% |
| under_4.5 | 82.5% | over_5.5 | 7.8% | under_5.5 | 92.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 66.6% | under_0.5 | 33.4% | over_1.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.0% | over_2.5 | 9.9% | under_2.5 | 90.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 84.1% | under_0.5 | 15.9% | over_1.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 45.1% | over_2.5 | 28.0% | under_2.5 | 72.0% |
most
| home | 22.0% | draw | 23.8% | away | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 2.5% | away_+2.5 | 97.5% | home_-1.5 | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 91.5% | home_-0.5 | 22.0% | away_+0.5 | 78.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 45.8% | away_-0.5 | 54.2% | home_+1.5 | 68.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.2% | home_+2.5 | 85.5% | away_-2.5 | 14.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.8% | exact_1 | 14.5% | exact_2 | 23.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.5% | exact_5 | 9.7% |
| exact_6 | 4.7% | exact_7plus | 3.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.9% | draw | 35.7% | away | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.4% | under_0.5 | 21.6% | over_1.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.7% | over_2.5 | 19.9% | under_2.5 | 80.1% |
btts
| yes | 27.7% | no | 72.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 21.6% | exact_1 | 33.1% | exact_2 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 13.0% | exact_4plus | 7.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 18.6% | draw | 36.4% | away | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.9% | under_0.5 | 24.1% | over_1.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.3% | over_2.5 | 17.3% | under_2.5 | 82.7% |
btts
| yes | 23.5% | no | 76.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 15.0% | H/D | 5.6% | H/A | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 6.6% | D/D | 13.0% | D/A | 16.1% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 4.2% | A/A | 35.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.4% | under_7.5 | 25.6% | over_8.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.9% | over_9.5 | 51.2% | under_9.5 | 48.8% |
| over_10.5 | 39.6% | under_10.5 | 60.5% | over_11.5 | 29.2% |
| under_11.5 | 70.9% | over_12.5 | 20.5% | under_12.5 | 79.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.3% | under_3.5 | 31.7% | over_4.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.9% | over_5.5 | 37.0% | under_5.5 | 63.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 68.4% | under_3.5 | 31.6% | over_4.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.7% | over_5.5 | 37.1% | under_5.5 | 62.9% |
most
| home | 44.6% | draw | 10.7% | away | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.4% | away_+3.5 | 82.6% | home_-1.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 65.8% | home_-0.5 | 44.6% | away_+0.5 | 55.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 55.3% | away_-0.5 | 44.7% | home_+1.5 | 65.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 34.4% | home_+3.5 | 82.4% | away_-3.5 | 17.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.3% | under_22.5 | 34.7% | over_24.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 46.7% | over_26.5 | 41.4% | under_26.5 | 58.6% |
| over_28.5 | 30.5% | under_28.5 | 69.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.5% | under_10.5 | 31.5% | over_12.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.2% | over_14.5 | 35.9% | under_14.5 | 64.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 62.7% | under_10.5 | 37.3% | over_12.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.7% | over_14.5 | 29.8% | under_14.5 | 70.2% |
most
| home | 51.5% | draw | 6.1% | away | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 28.2% | away_+4.5 | 71.8% | home_-2.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 60.7% | home_-0.5 | 51.5% | away_+0.5 | 48.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 57.6% | away_-0.5 | 42.4% | home_+2.5 | 69.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 30.9% | home_+4.5 | 79.0% | away_-4.5 | 21.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 75.4% | under_6.5 | 24.6% | over_7.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.1% | over_8.5 | 51.7% | under_8.5 | 48.3% |
| over_9.5 | 39.9% | under_9.5 | 60.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.1% | under_3.5 | 38.9% | over_4.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.4% | over_5.5 | 28.5% | under_5.5 | 71.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.3% | under_3.5 | 36.7% | over_4.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.9% | over_5.5 | 30.8% | under_5.5 | 69.2% |
most
| home | 42.1% | draw | 12.4% | away | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.6% | away_+2.5 | 79.4% | home_-0.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.9% | home_+0.5 | 54.5% | away_-0.5 | 45.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 76.8% | away_-2.5 | 23.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 87.4% | under_2.5 | 12.6% | over_3.5 | 73.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 26.7% | over_4.5 | 55.7% | under_4.5 | 44.3% |
| over_5.5 | 38.2% | under_5.5 | 61.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 70.8% | under_1.5 | 29.2% | over_2.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.4% | under_1.5 | 28.6% | over_2.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.2% |
most
| home | 40.3% | draw | 18.4% | away | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 24.0% | away_+1.5 | 76.0% | home_-0.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.7% | home_+0.5 | 58.7% | away_-0.5 | 41.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.2% | away_-1.5 | 24.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 85.6% | under_20.5 | 14.4% | over_22.5 | 74.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.1% | over_24.5 | 61.5% | under_24.5 | 38.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.5% | under_9.5 | 15.5% | over_11.5 | 67.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.3% | over_13.5 | 47.6% | under_13.5 | 52.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 80.4% | under_9.5 | 19.6% | over_11.5 | 61.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.4% | over_13.5 | 40.9% | under_13.5 | 59.1% |
most
| home | 51.0% | draw | 7.3% | away | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.9% | away_+3.5 | 70.1% | home_-0.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.0% | home_+2.5 | 71.8% | away_-2.5 | 28.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 20.5% | no | 79.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 15.5% | no | 84.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Genclerbirligi predictions · Fenerbahce predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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