Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi vs 
Fenerbahce Shots
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 53.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.3% for over 22.5 to 30.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. Head to head on shots, Genclerbirligi are the model’s pick to have more shots at 51.5%, with a level count at 6.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.5% | 69.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.5%
51.8%
35.9%
62.7%
45.3%
29.8%
Shot handicap
| Genclerbirligi line | Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| -0.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| +0.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| +2.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.9% | 60.1% |
This season (2025/26)
10.8Genclerbirligi shots per game17.2Fenerbahce shots per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Genclerbirligi.
In-depth analysis
53.3%Over 24.5 shots51.8%Genclerbirligi over 12.5 shots45.3%Fenerbahce over 12.5 shots63.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Genclerbirligi over 12.5 shots sits at 51.8% and Fenerbahce at 45.3%. This season Genclerbirligi have averaged 10.8 shots a game and Fenerbahce 17.2.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 53.3% for Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce.
Which team will have more shots in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
Before kickoff, the model rated Genclerbirligi to take more shots at 51.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.