Premier League
Fulham vs 
Chelsea Corners
Result
Settled, final score 2-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.3% for over 7.5 to 25.2% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. Between the two sides, Fulham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.3%, with a level count at 10.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 68.1% | 32.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.2% | 74.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.3%
57.3%
42.6%
69.3%
53.7%
38.9%
Corner handicap
| Fulham line | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| -0.5 | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| +0.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| +1.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Fulham.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Fulham over 4.5 corners sits at 57.3% and Chelsea at 53.7%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Fulham vs Chelsea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 56.7% for Fulham vs Chelsea.
Which team will win the corner count in Fulham vs Chelsea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fulham to win the corner count at 47.3%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.