Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
69.3% |
Over 7.5 |
57.1% |
Over 8.5 |
44.9% |
Over 9.5 |
33.7% |
| Most: Fulham |
49.9% |
Most: Chelsea |
37.6% |
| Fulham Over 4.2 |
44.3% |
Chelsea Over 4.2 |
35.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
77.1% |
Over 3.5 |
57.9% |
Over 4.5 |
38.4% |
| Most: Fulham |
33.3% |
Most: Chelsea |
46.5% |
| Fulham Over 1.8 |
55.4% |
Chelsea Over 1.8 |
64.7% |
Fulham: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Rodrigo Muniz |
3.37 |
1.12 |
0.42 |
36.9% |
40.3% |
15.9% |
| Reiss Nelson |
2.02 |
1.1 |
0.18 |
42.0% |
26.4% |
8.5% |
| Harry Wilson |
2.79 |
0.97 |
0.37 |
49.8% |
58.9% |
23.1% |
| Raúl Jiménez |
3.2 |
0.95 |
0.4 |
49.2% |
66.5% |
24.8% |
| Kevin |
2.25 |
0.9 |
0.09 |
32.0% |
25.1% |
3.8% |
Chelsea: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Nicolas Jackson |
2.98 |
1.33 |
0.39 |
67.7% |
71.9% |
28.2% |
| Noni Madueke |
3.41 |
1.28 |
0.3 |
60.9% |
71.3% |
19.8% |
| Cole Palmer |
3.27 |
1.27 |
0.43 |
69.0% |
80.4% |
32.8% |
| Christopher Nkunku |
2.56 |
1.13 |
0.31 |
33.5% |
23.7% |
10.6% |
| Liam Delap |
3.05 |
0.93 |
0.08 |
32.5% |
36.9% |
3.3% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
37.3% |
draw |
26.9% |
away |
35.8% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
64.2% |
12 |
73.1% |
X2 |
62.7% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
19.9% |
home_by_2 |
11.1% |
home_by_3plus |
6.3% |
| away_by_1 |
19.4% |
away_by_2 |
10.6% |
away_by_3plus |
5.9% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
7.3% |
0-1 |
8.3% |
0-2 |
5.9% |
| 0-3 |
2.7% |
0-4 |
0.9% |
0-5 |
0.3% |
| 1-0 |
8.5% |
1-1 |
12.8% |
1-2 |
8.2% |
| 1-3 |
3.7% |
1-4 |
1.2% |
1-5 |
0.3% |
| 2-0 |
6.3% |
2-1 |
8.4% |
2-2 |
5.6% |
| 2-3 |
2.5% |
2-4 |
0.9% |
2-5 |
0.2% |
| 3-0 |
2.9% |
3-1 |
3.8% |
3-2 |
2.6% |
| 3-3 |
1.1% |
3-4 |
0.4% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
1.0% |
4-1 |
1.3% |
4-2 |
0.9% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.3% |
5-1 |
0.4% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.8% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
92.7% |
under_0.5 |
7.3% |
over_1.5 |
75.9% |
| under_1.5 |
24.1% |
over_2.5 |
50.9% |
under_2.5 |
49.1% |
| over_3.5 |
28.8% |
under_3.5 |
71.2% |
over_4.5 |
13.9% |
| under_4.5 |
86.1% |
over_5.5 |
5.8% |
under_5.5 |
94.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
74.6% |
under_0.5 |
25.4% |
over_1.5 |
39.8% |
| under_1.5 |
60.2% |
over_2.5 |
16.0% |
under_2.5 |
84.1% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
73.7% |
under_0.5 |
26.3% |
over_1.5 |
38.7% |
| under_1.5 |
61.3% |
over_2.5 |
15.3% |
under_2.5 |
84.7% |
|
most
| home |
37.3% |
draw |
26.9% |
away |
35.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
6.3% |
away_+2.5 |
93.7% |
home_-1.5 |
17.4% |
| away_+1.5 |
82.6% |
home_-0.5 |
37.3% |
away_+0.5 |
62.7% |
| home_+0.5 |
64.2% |
away_-0.5 |
35.8% |
home_+1.5 |
83.6% |
| away_-1.5 |
16.4% |
home_+2.5 |
94.1% |
away_-2.5 |
5.9% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
7.3% |
exact_1 |
16.8% |
exact_2 |
25.0% |
| exact_3 |
22.0% |
exact_4 |
14.9% |
exact_5 |
8.1% |
| exact_6 |
3.7% |
exact_7plus |
2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
30.2% |
draw |
42.5% |
away |
27.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
69.2% |
under_0.5 |
30.9% |
over_1.5 |
32.9% |
| under_1.5 |
67.1% |
over_2.5 |
11.5% |
under_2.5 |
88.5% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
30.9% |
exact_1 |
36.3% |
exact_2 |
21.3% |
| exact_3 |
8.4% |
exact_4plus |
3.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
33.5% |
draw |
37.0% |
away |
29.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
77.2% |
under_0.5 |
22.8% |
over_1.5 |
43.6% |
| under_1.5 |
56.4% |
over_2.5 |
18.6% |
under_2.5 |
81.4% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
23.0% |
H/D |
5.1% |
H/A |
2.0% |
| D/H |
14.2% |
D/D |
15.7% |
D/A |
12.5% |
| A/H |
2.3% |
A/D |
5.2% |
A/A |
19.8% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
78.3% |
under_7.5 |
21.7% |
over_8.5 |
68.1% |
| under_8.5 |
32.0% |
over_9.5 |
56.7% |
under_9.5 |
43.3% |
| over_10.5 |
45.2% |
under_10.5 |
54.8% |
over_11.5 |
34.5% |
| under_11.5 |
65.5% |
over_12.5 |
25.2% |
under_12.5 |
74.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
72.3% |
under_3.5 |
27.7% |
over_4.5 |
57.3% |
| under_4.5 |
42.7% |
over_5.5 |
42.6% |
under_5.5 |
57.5% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
69.3% |
under_3.5 |
30.7% |
over_4.5 |
53.7% |
| under_4.5 |
46.3% |
over_5.5 |
38.9% |
under_5.5 |
61.1% |
|
most
| home |
47.3% |
draw |
10.1% |
away |
42.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
20.6% |
away_+3.5 |
79.4% |
home_-1.5 |
37.5% |
| away_+1.5 |
62.5% |
home_-0.5 |
47.3% |
away_+0.5 |
52.7% |
| home_+0.5 |
57.4% |
away_-0.5 |
42.6% |
home_+1.5 |
67.0% |
| away_-1.5 |
33.0% |
home_+3.5 |
82.6% |
away_-3.5 |
17.4% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
59.8% |
under_22.5 |
40.2% |
over_24.5 |
48.1% |
| under_24.5 |
51.9% |
over_26.5 |
36.8% |
under_26.5 |
63.2% |
| over_28.5 |
26.8% |
under_28.5 |
73.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
68.9% |
under_10.5 |
31.1% |
over_12.5 |
53.3% |
| under_12.5 |
46.7% |
over_14.5 |
38.1% |
under_14.5 |
61.9% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
52.8% |
under_10.5 |
47.2% |
over_12.5 |
36.1% |
| under_12.5 |
63.9% |
over_14.5 |
22.6% |
under_14.5 |
77.4% |
|
most
| home |
59.0% |
draw |
5.7% |
away |
35.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
35.5% |
away_+4.5 |
64.5% |
home_-2.5 |
47.1% |
| away_+2.5 |
52.9% |
home_-0.5 |
59.0% |
away_+0.5 |
41.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
64.8% |
away_-0.5 |
35.3% |
home_+2.5 |
75.1% |
| away_-2.5 |
24.9% |
home_+4.5 |
83.6% |
away_-4.5 |
16.4% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
69.3% |
under_6.5 |
30.7% |
over_7.5 |
57.1% |
| under_7.5 |
42.9% |
over_8.5 |
44.9% |
under_8.5 |
55.1% |
| over_9.5 |
33.7% |
under_9.5 |
66.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
61.2% |
under_3.5 |
38.8% |
over_4.5 |
44.4% |
| under_4.5 |
55.7% |
over_5.5 |
29.7% |
under_5.5 |
70.3% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
52.7% |
under_3.5 |
47.3% |
over_4.5 |
35.6% |
| under_4.5 |
64.5% |
over_5.5 |
22.1% |
under_5.5 |
77.9% |
|
most
| home |
49.9% |
draw |
12.5% |
away |
37.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
26.5% |
away_+2.5 |
73.5% |
home_-0.5 |
49.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
50.1% |
home_+0.5 |
62.4% |
away_-0.5 |
37.6% |
| home_+2.5 |
82.7% |
away_-2.5 |
17.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
77.1% |
under_2.5 |
22.9% |
over_3.5 |
57.9% |
| under_3.5 |
42.1% |
over_4.5 |
38.4% |
under_4.5 |
61.6% |
| over_5.5 |
22.5% |
under_5.5 |
77.5% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
55.4% |
under_1.5 |
44.6% |
over_2.5 |
28.5% |
| under_2.5 |
71.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
64.7% |
under_1.5 |
35.3% |
over_2.5 |
37.9% |
| under_2.5 |
62.1% |
most
| home |
33.3% |
draw |
20.3% |
away |
46.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
17.2% |
away_+1.5 |
82.8% |
home_-0.5 |
33.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
66.8% |
home_+0.5 |
53.5% |
away_-0.5 |
46.5% |
| home_+1.5 |
72.6% |
away_-1.5 |
27.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
61.3% |
under_20.5 |
38.7% |
over_22.5 |
45.1% |
| under_22.5 |
54.9% |
over_24.5 |
30.2% |
under_24.5 |
69.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
68.9% |
under_9.5 |
31.1% |
over_11.5 |
46.5% |
| under_11.5 |
53.5% |
over_13.5 |
26.4% |
under_13.5 |
73.7% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
61.8% |
under_9.5 |
38.2% |
over_11.5 |
38.7% |
| under_11.5 |
61.3% |
over_13.5 |
20.1% |
under_13.5 |
79.9% |
|
most
| home |
51.5% |
draw |
8.1% |
away |
40.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
28.2% |
away_+3.5 |
71.8% |
home_-0.5 |
51.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
48.5% |
home_+2.5 |
74.3% |
away_-2.5 |
25.7% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Premier League
Fulham
Chelsea