Primeira Liga
Famalicao vs 
Maritimo Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 42.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 54.7% for over 22.5 to 21.9% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. Head to head on shots, Famalicao are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.2%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.9% | 78.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.6%
50.2%
34.8%
48.3%
31.5%
18.6%
Shot handicap
| Famalicao line | Famalicao | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| -2.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| -0.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| +0.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.1% | 68.9% |
This season (2026/27)
6.0Famalicao shots per game16.0Maritimo shots per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Famalicao.
In-depth analysis
42.5%Over 24.5 shots50.2%Famalicao over 12.5 shots31.5%Maritimo over 12.5 shots55.5%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Famalicao over 12.5 shots sits at 50.2% and Maritimo at 31.5%. This season Famalicao have averaged 6.0 shots a game and Maritimo 16.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 42.5% for Famalicao vs Maritimo.
Which team will have more shots in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Famalicao to take more shots at 60.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.