Eredivisie
Excelsior vs 
Sparta Rotterdam Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 34.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 56.3% for over 2.5 to 8.2% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.3%. Between the two sides, Sparta Rotterdam are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 23.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.9% | 82.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.2% | 91.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
35.3%
13.3%
50.5%
24.6%
Card handicap
| Excelsior line | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| -0.5 | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| +0.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 20.3% | 79.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam. Slightly more cards are projected for Sparta Rotterdam for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
34.2%Over 3.5 cards10.2%Any red card35.3%Excelsior over 1.5 cards50.5%Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 cards32.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Excelsior over 1.5 cards sits at 35.3% and Sparta Rotterdam at 50.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.2% (Excelsior 4.7%, Sparta Rotterdam 5.8%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 34.2% for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam.
Will there be a red card in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sparta Rotterdam to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 23.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.