Eredivisie
Excelsior vs 
Sparta Rotterdam Correct Score
Result
Final score 2-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 9.5%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Excelsior have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, Sparta Rotterdam 1.6 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.1% for over 2.5 and 80.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 6.9% |
| 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 0-1 | 5.8% |
| 0-0 | 5.7% |
Score probability grid
| Excelsior \ Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Excelsior goals, columns = Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
59.1%Both Teams to Score57.1%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 57.1% for three or more goals and 80.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Excelsior favoured at 48.1%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Excelsior 2 · 0 draws · Sparta Rotterdam 3 · 4.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam finished 2-1. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 11.5%; it gave the actual 2-1 a 9.5% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.