Dijon 4-2 Metz shots: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Dijon4-2Metz
Settled, final score 4-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 24.5 shots43.5%
Shots prediction
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Dijon.
Total shots
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.6% | 78.4% |
Who takes more shots
DijonMetzTeam shots lines
Dijon
Metz
Shots on target
Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.3% | 63.7% |
Who has more on target
DijonMetzTeam shots on target lines
Dijon
Metz
Shot handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Dijon's; Metz gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Dijon line | Dijon | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| -2.5 | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| -0.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| +0.5 | 64.9% | 35.1% |
Shots stats
Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.
This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.
At home and away: Dijon in their home matches and Metz in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.
By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.
Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.
Recorded 2026/27
This season
Dijon at home, Metz away
By half, this season
No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.
Last six league matches
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 17,005 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.3% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 43.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 56.3% for over 22.5 to 21.6% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.3%. On the shot count, Dijon are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.7%, with a level count at 6.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Dijon over 12.5 shots sits at 49.9% and Metz at 33.1%. This season Dijon have averaged 13.0 shots a game and Metz 13.6.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Dijon vs Metz?
Which team will have more shots in Dijon vs Metz?
How many shots do Metz take away from home?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Ligue 2, Shots
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
