ChampionshipDerby vs Swansea Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.4% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. On the card count, Derby are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.2%, with a level count at 21.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.7% | 80.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.3%
31.2%
57.3%
30.2%
Card handicap
| Derby line | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.0% | 78.1% |
| -0.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| +0.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| +1.5 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Derby vs Swansea. It tips Derby for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
54.3%Over 3.5 cards5.2%Any red card58.3%Derby over 1.5 cards57.3%Swansea over 1.5 cards50.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Derby over 1.5 cards sits at 58.3% and Swansea at 57.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.2% (Derby 4.1%, Swansea 1.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Derby vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.3% for Derby vs Swansea.
Will there be a red card in Derby vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 5.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Derby vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Derby to pick up more cards at 40.2%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.