ChampionshipDerby vs Swansea Shots
Result
Settled, final score 0-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 58.5% for over 22.5 to 23.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. Head to head on shots, Derby are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.2%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.6% | 76.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.2%
53.4%
37.0%
50.8%
32.9%
19.1%
Shot handicap
| Derby line | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| -2.5 | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| -0.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| +0.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.7% | 69.3% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Derby.
In-depth analysis
45.8%Over 24.5 shots53.4%Derby over 12.5 shots32.9%Swansea over 12.5 shots54.8%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Derby over 12.5 shots sits at 53.4% and Swansea at 32.9%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Derby vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 45.8% for Derby vs Swansea.
Which team will have more shots in Derby vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Derby to take more shots at 61.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.