Middlesbrough vs West Brom: model prediction
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Middlesbrough at 48.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 54.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 50.2% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Middlesbrough: 48% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 29 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Middlesbrough at 56%. Caution noted. 2) No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) The run in: Middlesbrough arrive W3 D2 L1, West Brom W4 D1 L1. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 5 wins for Middlesbrough, 0 draws and 0 for West Brom at 2.4 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.20).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
48.0%-7.8%
27.2%+3.1%
24.8%+4.7%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.20)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Middlesbrough 5 · 0 draws · West Brom 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.88 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 79%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.5% | Over 7.5 | 52.4% | Over 8.5 | 39.7% | Over 9.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Middlesbrough | 57.4% | Most: West Brom | 30.0% | ||||
| Middlesbrough Over 4.2 | 46.0% | West Brom Over 4.2 | 26.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% | Over 3.5 | 46.3% | Over 4.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Middlesbrough | 26.3% | Most: West Brom | 52.5% | ||
| Middlesbrough Over 1.8 | 41.7% | West Brom Over 1.8 | 61.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 36.5% |
|---|---|
| West Brom clean sheet | 22.4% |
| Middlesbrough win to nil | 27.6% |
| West Brom win to nil | 13.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 48.0% | draw | 27.3% | away | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.2% | 12 | 72.8% | X2 | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 65.9% | away | 34.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.8% | no | 50.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 36.6% | away | 22.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.8% | away | 13.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.5% | home_by_2 | 14.7% | home_by_3plus | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.6% | away_by_2 | 6.6% | away_by_3plus | 2.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 0-1 | 7.6% | 0-2 | 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 2-1 | 9.2% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.6% | 3-1 | 4.6% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.7% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.2% | under_0.5 | 8.8% | over_1.5 | 71.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 28.1% | over_2.5 | 45.6% | under_2.5 | 54.4% |
| over_3.5 | 24.3% | under_3.5 | 75.8% | over_4.5 | 10.9% |
| under_4.5 | 89.1% | over_5.5 | 4.2% | under_5.5 | 95.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.6% | under_0.5 | 22.4% | over_1.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.9% | over_2.5 | 19.0% | under_2.5 | 81.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 63.4% | under_0.5 | 36.6% | over_1.5 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.4% | over_2.5 | 8.1% | under_2.5 | 91.9% |
most
| home | 48.0% | draw | 27.3% | away | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.7% | away_+2.5 | 90.3% | home_-1.5 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 75.5% | home_-0.5 | 48.0% | away_+0.5 | 52.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.2% | away_-0.5 | 24.8% | home_+1.5 | 90.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.2% | home_+2.5 | 97.4% | away_-2.5 | 2.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.8% | exact_1 | 19.3% | exact_2 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.4% | exact_5 | 6.7% |
| exact_6 | 2.8% | exact_7plus | 1.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.0% | draw | 41.4% | away | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.2% | under_0.5 | 30.8% | over_1.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.0% | over_2.5 | 11.6% | under_2.5 | 88.4% |
btts
| yes | 18.2% | no | 81.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.8% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.4% | exact_4plus | 3.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.5% | draw | 39.6% | away | 24.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.1% | under_0.5 | 26.9% | over_1.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.3% | over_2.5 | 14.6% | under_2.5 | 85.4% |
btts
| yes | 22.8% | no | 77.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.6% | H/D | 5.7% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.7% | D/D | 16.4% | D/A | 10.3% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 4.0% | A/A | 12.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.1% | under_7.5 | 19.9% | over_8.5 | 70.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.0% | over_9.5 | 58.7% | under_9.5 | 41.3% |
| over_10.5 | 47.1% | under_10.5 | 52.9% | over_11.5 | 36.1% |
| under_11.5 | 63.9% | over_12.5 | 26.4% | under_12.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 81.6% | under_3.5 | 18.4% | over_4.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 31.3% | over_5.5 | 54.3% | under_5.5 | 45.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.4% | under_3.5 | 38.6% | over_4.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.9% | over_5.5 | 29.1% | under_5.5 | 70.9% |
most
| home | 61.7% | draw | 9.7% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.9% | away_+3.5 | 69.1% | home_-1.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 48.8% | home_-0.5 | 61.7% | away_+0.5 | 38.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.4% | away_-0.5 | 28.6% | home_+1.5 | 79.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.3% | home_+3.5 | 91.4% | away_-3.5 | 8.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.6% | under_22.5 | 36.4% | over_24.5 | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.9% | over_26.5 | 38.9% | under_26.5 | 61.1% |
| over_28.5 | 27.9% | under_28.5 | 72.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.5% | under_10.5 | 23.5% | over_12.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.9% | over_14.5 | 44.9% | under_14.5 | 55.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.7% | under_10.5 | 50.3% | over_12.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.1% | over_14.5 | 18.3% | under_14.5 | 81.7% |
most
| home | 67.2% | draw | 5.5% | away | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 42.4% | away_+4.5 | 57.6% | home_-2.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 44.9% | home_-0.5 | 67.2% | away_+0.5 | 32.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.8% | away_-0.5 | 27.2% | home_+2.5 | 82.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.8% | home_+4.5 | 89.3% | away_-4.5 | 10.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.5% | under_6.5 | 34.5% | over_7.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.6% | over_8.5 | 39.8% | under_8.5 | 60.3% |
| over_9.5 | 28.6% | under_9.5 | 71.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.4% | under_3.5 | 36.6% | over_4.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.0% | over_5.5 | 30.7% | under_5.5 | 69.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.7% | under_3.5 | 56.3% | over_4.5 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.4% | over_5.5 | 14.6% | under_5.5 | 85.4% |
most
| home | 57.4% | draw | 12.6% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.6% | away_+2.5 | 68.4% | home_-0.5 | 57.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.6% | home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.4% | away_-2.5 | 11.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 67.9% | under_2.5 | 32.1% | over_3.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 53.7% | over_4.5 | 27.5% | under_4.5 | 72.5% |
| over_5.5 | 14.2% | under_5.5 | 85.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 41.7% | under_1.5 | 58.3% | over_2.5 | 17.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 82.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.4% | under_1.5 | 38.6% | over_2.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.7% |
most
| home | 26.3% | draw | 21.2% | away | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.6% | away_+1.5 | 88.4% | home_-0.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.7% | home_+0.5 | 47.5% | away_-0.5 | 52.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.9% | away_-1.5 | 31.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 55.6% | under_20.5 | 44.4% | over_22.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 60.1% | over_24.5 | 26.0% | under_24.5 | 74.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 51.8% | under_9.5 | 48.2% | over_11.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 70.3% | over_13.5 | 14.2% | under_13.5 | 85.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.6% | under_9.5 | 30.4% | over_11.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.9% | over_13.5 | 28.4% | under_13.5 | 71.6% |
most
| home | 33.1% | draw | 7.6% | away | 59.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 14.8% | away_+3.5 | 85.2% | home_-0.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.9% | home_+2.5 | 56.8% | away_-2.5 | 43.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.0% | no | 91.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 1.4% | no | 98.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.7% | no | 92.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Middlesbrough predictions · West Brom predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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