League TwoCrawley Town vs Cheltenham Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 52.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Crawley Town have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, Cheltenham 2.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.7% for over 2.5 and 77.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Crawley Town have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Cheltenham in 5 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 77.3% | 22.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.4% | 93.6% |
Team goal lines
77.4%
43.8%
18.8%
72.7%
37.3%
14.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 74.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 7.4% | 92.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 84.2% | 15.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 28.1% | 71.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Crawley Town goals scored per game1.6Crawley Town goals conceded per game40.0%Crawley Town Over 2.5 rate0.4Crawley Town 1st-half goals per game2.0Cheltenham goals scored per game1.8Cheltenham goals conceded per game100.0%Cheltenham Over 2.5 rate0.8Cheltenham 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
56.8%Both Teams to Score52.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 52.7% for three or more goals and 77.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Crawley Town favoured at 41.1%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Crawley Town to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Crawley Town 3 · 0 draws · Cheltenham 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 52.7% for Crawley Town vs Cheltenham.
Will there be a first-half goal in Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 61.9%.
How often have Crawley Town gone over 2.5 recently?
Crawley Town have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Cheltenham in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.