League TwoNewport County vs Fleetwood Town Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 52.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Newport County have averaged 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, Fleetwood Town 1.2 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.6% for over 2.5 and 73.5% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.0 goals a game. Newport County have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Fleetwood Town in 1 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| 4.5 goals | 12.0% | 88.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.8% | 95.3% |
Team goal lines
69.5%
33.3%
11.8%
75.1%
40.5%
16.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 74.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 7.4% | 92.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.7% | 19.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.8% | 77.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Newport County goals scored per game2.0Newport County goals conceded per game80.0%Newport County Over 2.5 rate0.8Newport County 1st-half goals per game1.2Fleetwood Town goals scored per game0.6Fleetwood Town goals conceded per game20.0%Fleetwood Town Over 2.5 rate0.6Fleetwood Town 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
52.8%Both Teams to Score47.6%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 47.6% for three or more goals and 73.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Fleetwood Town favoured at 41.0%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Fleetwood Town to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Newport County 0 · 2 draws · Fleetwood Town 2 · 1.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 47.6% for Newport County vs Fleetwood Town.
Will there be a first-half goal in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 61.9%.
How often have Newport County gone over 2.5 recently?
Newport County have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Fleetwood Town in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.