Crawley Town vs Cheltenham prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

League Two

Crawley Town vs Cheltenham Both Teams to Score

2026-09-12 · 12:30
Both Teams to Score56.8%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 56.8%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
57%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Both teams to score · Yes at 56.8%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Crawley Town have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, Cheltenham 2.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.7% for over 2.5 and 77.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Cheltenham in 5 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes56.8%

No43.2%

Over 2.5 · context52.7%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Crawley Town scored

1.0

Crawley Town conceded

1.6

Cheltenham scored

2.0

Cheltenham conceded

1.8

Each team to score

Crawley Town to score77.4%

Crawley Town 2+ goals43.8%

Cheltenham to score72.7%

Cheltenham 2+ goals37.3%

By half

Both score in 1st half14.5%

Both score in 2nd half36.2%

This season (2026/27)

60.0%Crawley Town BTTS rate
0.0%Crawley Town clean sheets
1.0Crawley Town goals scored per game
100.0%Cheltenham BTTS rate
0.0%Cheltenham clean sheets
2.0Cheltenham goals scored per game

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

6.8%

0

16.0%

1

24.5%

2

22.2%

3

15.5%

4

14.4%

5+

In-depth analysis

41.1%Favoured: Crawley Town
56.8%Both Teams to Score
52.7%Over 2.5 goals

On the goals side, the model sees 52.7% for three or more goals and 77.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Crawley Town favoured at 41.1%, a competitive game tends to open up.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 56.8% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees a balanced game from the 52.7% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutCrawley Town are the model’s pick on the result at 41.1%, game state shapes how this market plays out.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Crawley Town41.1%

Draw26.4%

Cheltenham32.5%

The model leans Crawley Town to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

Crawley TownLWLDL
CheltenhamWLDWD

Last 5 meetings: Crawley Town 3 · 0 draws · Cheltenham 2 · 1.8 goals/game.

Recent trends

Crawley TownBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 2/5
CheltenhamBTTS 5/5Over 2.5 5/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 56.8% for Crawley Town vs Cheltenham.

Will Crawley Town score against Cheltenham?
The model rates Crawley Town to score at 77.4% and Cheltenham to score at 72.7%.

How often have Crawley Town seen both teams score recently?
Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Cheltenham in 5 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,318Matches graded

In 26,581 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 52.9%✗ 51.9%✗ 59.3%✗ 50.6%✓ 52.6%✓ 51.6%✗ 51.1%✓ 58.9%✓ 62.2%✗ 52.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Yes 52.9%Hit
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10No 51.9%Miss
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Yes 59.3%Miss
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Yes 50.6%Miss
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09No 52.6%Hit

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.