League TwoColchester vs Crewe Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 58.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Colchester have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded, Crewe 1.0 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.0% for over 2.5 and 68.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.0 goals a game. Colchester have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Crewe in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 9.2% | 90.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.4% | 96.6% |
Team goal lines
73.0%
37.7%
14.6%
65.0%
28.3%
9.0%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 9.2% | 90.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.9% | 88.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Colchester goals scored per game1.6Colchester goals conceded per game60.0%Colchester Over 2.5 rate0.4Colchester 1st-half goals per game1.0Crewe goals scored per game0.6Crewe goals conceded per game20.0%Crewe Over 2.5 rate0.2Crewe 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
48.1%Both Teams to Score42.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 42.0% for three or more goals and 68.9% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Colchester favoured at 41.9%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Colchester to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Colchester 0 · 4 draws · Crewe 1 · 1.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Colchester vs Crewe?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 42.0% for Colchester vs Crewe.
Will there be a first-half goal in Colchester vs Crewe?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 65.4%.
How often have Colchester gone over 2.5 recently?
Colchester have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Crewe in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.