League TwoCrawley Town vs Cheltenham Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 73.6%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Crawley Town are favoured at 41.1%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Crawley Town by 1 | 20.8% |
| Crawley Town by 2 | 12.4% |
| Crawley Town by 3+ | 7.9% |
| Cheltenham by 1 | 18.1% |
| Cheltenham by 2 | 9.5% |
| Cheltenham by 3+ | 5.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
Goal handicap
| Crawley Town line | Crawley Town | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| -0.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| +0.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| +1.5 | 85.5% | 14.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Crawley Town goals scored per game1.6Crawley Town goals conceded per game2.0Cheltenham goals scored per game1.8Cheltenham goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Crawley Town or Cheltenham on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
56.8%Both Teams to Score52.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Crawley Town are favoured at 41.1%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Crawley Town 3 · 0 draws · Cheltenham 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Crawley Town vs Cheltenham at 73.6%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Crawley Town at 55.8% and Cheltenham at 44.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.