Serie A
Como vs 
Roma Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.6% for over 2.5 to 18.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. On the card count, Roma are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 20.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.4%
25.9%
58.9%
33.1%
Card handicap
| Como line | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.9% | 82.1% |
| -0.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| +0.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.0% | 26.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 50.7% | 49.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.5Roma cards per game13.0Roma fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Como vs Roma. The model leans toward Roma for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
51.6%Over 3.5 cards21.6%Any red card51.4%Como over 1.5 cards58.9%Roma over 1.5 cards63.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Como over 1.5 cards sits at 51.4% and Roma at 58.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.6% (Como 11.6%, Roma 11.3%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Como vs Roma?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.6% for Como vs Roma.
Will there be a red card in Como vs Roma?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Como vs Roma?
The model rates Roma to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
