Como vs Roma prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

Serie A

Como vs Roma Both Teams to Score

2026-10-11 · 11:30
Both Teams to Score53.7%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 53.7%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
54%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Both teams to score · Yes at 53.7%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: Como have averaged 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Roma 2.8 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 48.5% for over 2.5 and 74.1% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 2.3 goals a game. Como have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5, Roma in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes53.7%

No46.3%

Over 2.5 · context48.5%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Como scored

1.8

Como conceded

1.2

Roma scored

2.8

Roma conceded

0.6

Each team to score

Como to score73.0%

Como 2+ goals37.8%

Roma to score72.8%

Roma 2+ goals37.4%

By half

Both score in 1st half18.0%

Both score in 2nd half24.8%

This season (2026/27)

80.0%Como BTTS rate
0.0%Como clean sheets
1.8Como goals scored per game
40.0%Roma BTTS rate
60.0%Roma clean sheets
2.8Roma goals scored per game

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

8.0%

0

17.9%

1

25.6%

2

21.8%

3

14.2%

4

12.0%

5+

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

36.1%Favoured: Como
53.7%Both Teams to Score
48.5%Over 2.5 goals

On the goals side, the model sees 48.5% for three or more goals and 74.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Como favoured at 36.1%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 53.7% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects a balanced game from the 48.5% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutComo are the model’s pick on the result at 36.1%, game state shapes how this market plays out.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Como36.1%

Draw27.8%

Roma36.1%

The model leans Como to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

M

Moise KeanComo · 3.84 shots/90
To score 34.9%

D

Donyell MalenRoma · 4.13 shots/90
To score 34.3%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

ComoDWWWL
RomaWWWWD

Last 4 meetings: Como 2 · 0 draws · Roma 2 · 2.3 goals/game.

Recent trends

ComoBTTS 4/5Over 2.5 3/5
RomaBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 4/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Como vs Roma?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 53.7% for Como vs Roma.

Will Como score against Roma?
The model rates Como to score at 73.0% and Roma to score at 72.8%.

How often have Como seen both teams score recently?
Como have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5, Roma in 2 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,617Matches graded

In 26,755 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 61.8%✗ 54.5%✗ 51.3%✓ 55.8%✗ 67.4%✗ 62.0%✓ 64.5%✓ 60.1%✓ 59.0%✓ 55.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool2026-09-20Yes 61.8%Miss
Leeds vs Crystal Palace2026-09-20Yes 54.5%Miss
Manchester City vs Sunderland2026-09-20No 51.3%Miss
Fulham vs Manchester United2026-09-20Yes 55.8%Hit
Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig2026-09-20Yes 67.4%Miss

More Serie A, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.