Serie A
Inter vs 
Parma Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 44.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 65.7% for over 2.5 to 14.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.6%. Head to head on cards, Parma are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 22.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 26.7% | 73.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.2% | 85.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.2%
23.2%
52.5%
26.9%
Card handicap
| Inter line | Inter | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| -0.5 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| +0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| +1.5 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.4% | 60.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Inter cards per game6.6Inter fouls per game1.6Parma cards per game11.0Parma fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Inter vs Parma. Slightly more cards are projected for Parma for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
44.6%Over 3.5 cards12.9%Any red card48.2%Inter over 1.5 cards52.5%Parma over 1.5 cards52.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Inter over 1.5 cards sits at 48.2% and Parma at 52.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.9% (Inter 3.2%, Parma 10.0%). This season Inter have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Parma 1.6.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Inter vs Parma?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 44.6% for Inter vs Parma.
Will there be a red card in Inter vs Parma?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Inter vs Parma?
The model rates Parma to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 22.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
