League TwoColchester vs Rochdale Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 58.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.6% for over 2.5 to 23.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.5%. On the card count, Rochdale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 19.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.0% | 77.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.7%
26.9%
66.8%
40.3%
Card handicap
| Colchester line | Colchester | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.4% | 84.6% |
| -0.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| +0.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| +1.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 45.5% | 54.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Colchester vs Rochdale. Slightly more cards are projected for Rochdale for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
58.5%Over 3.5 cards25.7%Any red card53.7%Colchester over 1.5 cards66.8%Rochdale over 1.5 cards60.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Colchester over 1.5 cards sits at 53.7% and Rochdale at 66.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.7% (Colchester 2.3%, Rochdale 24.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Colchester vs Rochdale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 58.5% for Colchester vs Rochdale.
Will there be a red card in Colchester vs Rochdale?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 25.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Colchester vs Rochdale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rochdale to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.