League TwoColchester vs Rochdale Correct Score
Result
Final score 1-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 12.6%.
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 12.6% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Colchester have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Rochdale 1.2 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.3% for over 2.5 and 73.1% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-0 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 0-0 | 8.3% |
| 3-0 | 6.4% |
| 0-1 | 6.0% |
| 3-1 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Colchester \ Rochdale | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 13% | 12% | 5% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Colchester goals, columns = Rochdale. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12.6%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
47.7%Both Teams to Score47.3%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 47.3% for three or more goals and 73.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Colchester favoured at 56.9%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Colchester 1 · 2 draws · Rochdale 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Colchester vs Rochdale?
Colchester vs Rochdale finished 1-0, exactly the model's most likely scoreline (12.6%).
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.