Rotherham vs Chesterfield: model prediction
League TwoDraw or Chesterfield
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Chesterfield at 48.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 53.8% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 50.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Chesterfield: 49% is the model's line for this League Two meeting on 29 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 42% for Chesterfield. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Rotherham are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Rotherham W0 D1 L1, Chesterfield W4 D1 L1. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
24.3%-6.4%
27.0%-0.7%
48.7%+7.1%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.42 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 63.5% | Over 7.5 | 50.6% | Over 8.5 | 38.3% | Over 9.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rotherham | 49.6% | Most: Chesterfield | 37.3% | ||||
| Rotherham Over 4.2 | 39.6% | Chesterfield Over 4.2 | 31.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.0% | Over 3.5 | 51.3% | Over 4.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rotherham | 38.7% | Most: Chesterfield | 39.8% | ||
| Rotherham Over 1.8 | 55.3% | Chesterfield Over 1.8 | 56.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rotherham clean sheet | 21.8% |
|---|---|
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 36.6% |
| Rotherham win to nil | 13.2% |
| Chesterfield win to nil | 28.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 24.3% | draw | 27.0% | away | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 51.3% | 12 | 73.0% | X2 | 75.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 33.3% | away | 66.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.1% | no | 49.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 21.8% | away | 36.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 13.2% | away | 28.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 15.3% | home_by_2 | 6.5% | home_by_3plus | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 23.6% | away_by_2 | 15.0% | away_by_3plus | 10.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 0-1 | 11.6% | 0-2 | 9.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.7% | 0-4 | 1.8% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 1-1 | 12.8% | 1-2 | 9.3% |
| 1-3 | 4.7% | 1-4 | 1.8% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 4.0% | 2-1 | 6.1% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 1.3% | 3-1 | 2.0% | 3-2 | 1.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.3% | 4-1 | 0.5% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.4% | under_0.5 | 8.6% | over_1.5 | 72.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.6% | over_2.5 | 46.2% | under_2.5 | 53.8% |
| over_3.5 | 24.8% | under_3.5 | 75.2% | over_4.5 | 11.2% |
| under_4.5 | 88.8% | over_5.5 | 4.4% | under_5.5 | 95.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 63.2% | under_0.5 | 36.8% | over_1.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.5% | over_2.5 | 8.1% | under_2.5 | 91.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 78.2% | under_0.5 | 21.8% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% | under_2.5 | 80.3% |
most
| home | 24.3% | draw | 27.0% | away | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 2.5% | away_+2.5 | 97.5% | home_-1.5 | 9.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 91.0% | home_-0.5 | 24.3% | away_+0.5 | 75.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 51.3% | away_-0.5 | 48.7% | home_+1.5 | 74.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.2% | home_+2.5 | 89.8% | away_-2.5 | 10.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.6% | exact_1 | 19.0% | exact_2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.6% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.0% | draw | 39.2% | away | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.7% | under_0.5 | 26.3% | over_1.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.4% | over_2.5 | 15.1% | under_2.5 | 84.9% |
btts
| yes | 23.5% | no | 76.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.3% | exact_1 | 35.1% | exact_2 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.4% | exact_4plus | 4.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.1% | draw | 42.1% | away | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.6% | under_0.5 | 30.4% | over_1.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.6% | over_2.5 | 11.9% | under_2.5 | 88.1% |
btts
| yes | 20.1% | no | 79.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.6% | H/D | 4.8% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.6% | D/D | 16.5% | D/A | 12.1% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 5.4% | A/A | 27.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.6% | under_7.5 | 25.4% | over_8.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.5% | over_9.5 | 51.7% | under_9.5 | 48.3% |
| over_10.5 | 40.3% | under_10.5 | 59.7% | over_11.5 | 29.9% |
| under_11.5 | 70.1% | over_12.5 | 21.3% | under_12.5 | 78.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.9% | under_3.5 | 27.1% | over_4.5 | 57.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.4% | over_5.5 | 42.4% | under_5.5 | 57.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.3% | under_3.5 | 35.7% | over_4.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.5% | over_5.5 | 32.5% | under_5.5 | 67.5% |
most
| home | 51.4% | draw | 10.7% | away | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.9% | away_+3.5 | 78.1% | home_-1.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.4% | home_-0.5 | 51.4% | away_+0.5 | 48.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.1% | away_-0.5 | 37.9% | home_+1.5 | 71.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.1% | home_+3.5 | 86.9% | away_-3.5 | 13.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.9% | under_22.5 | 43.1% | over_24.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.9% | over_26.5 | 32.2% | under_26.5 | 67.8% |
| over_28.5 | 22.2% | under_28.5 | 77.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.1% | under_10.5 | 33.9% | over_12.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.5% | over_14.5 | 32.3% | under_14.5 | 67.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.6% | under_10.5 | 46.5% | over_12.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.6% | over_14.5 | 21.0% | under_14.5 | 79.0% |
most
| home | 56.0% | draw | 6.4% | away | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 30.8% | away_+4.5 | 69.2% | home_-2.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.0% | home_-0.5 | 56.0% | away_+0.5 | 44.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.4% | away_-0.5 | 37.6% | home_+2.5 | 74.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.0% | home_+4.5 | 83.4% | away_-4.5 | 16.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 63.5% | under_6.5 | 36.5% | over_7.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 49.4% | over_8.5 | 38.3% | under_8.5 | 61.7% |
| over_9.5 | 27.5% | under_9.5 | 72.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 56.9% | under_3.5 | 43.1% | over_4.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.4% | over_5.5 | 25.4% | under_5.5 | 74.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.1% | under_3.5 | 51.9% | over_4.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.0% | over_5.5 | 18.3% | under_5.5 | 81.7% |
most
| home | 49.6% | draw | 13.1% | away | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.3% | away_+2.5 | 74.7% | home_-0.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.4% | home_+0.5 | 62.7% | away_-0.5 | 37.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.7% | away_-2.5 | 16.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.0% | under_2.5 | 28.0% | over_3.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 48.8% | over_4.5 | 31.9% | under_4.5 | 68.1% |
| over_5.5 | 17.5% | under_5.5 | 82.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 55.3% | under_1.5 | 44.7% | over_2.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 56.0% | under_1.5 | 44.0% | over_2.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.9% |
most
| home | 38.7% | draw | 21.5% | away | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.5% | away_+1.5 | 79.5% | home_-0.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.3% | home_+0.5 | 60.2% | away_-0.5 | 39.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.7% | away_-1.5 | 21.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 59.8% | under_20.5 | 40.2% | over_22.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 56.1% | over_24.5 | 29.4% | under_24.5 | 70.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 64.2% | under_9.5 | 35.8% | over_11.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 58.3% | over_13.5 | 22.8% | under_13.5 | 77.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 64.2% | under_9.5 | 35.8% | over_11.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 58.3% | over_13.5 | 22.8% | under_13.5 | 77.2% |
most
| home | 46.0% | draw | 8.0% | away | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.0% | away_+3.5 | 76.0% | home_-0.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.0% | home_+2.5 | 69.3% | away_-2.5 | 30.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.5% | no | 89.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.7% | no | 95.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Rotherham predictions · Chesterfield predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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