League TwoColchester vs Crewe Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 71.1%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Colchester are favoured at 41.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.0 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Colchester by 1 | 22.4% |
| Colchester by 2 | 12.5% |
| Colchester by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Crewe by 1 | 17.8% |
| Crewe by 2 | 8.0% |
| Crewe by 3+ | 3.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% |
Goal handicap
| Colchester line | Colchester | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| -0.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| +0.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| +1.5 | 88.7% | 11.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Colchester goals scored per game1.6Colchester goals conceded per game1.0Crewe goals scored per game0.6Crewe goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Colchester or Crewe on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
48.1%Both Teams to Score42.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Colchester are favoured at 41.9%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Colchester 0 · 4 draws · Crewe 1 · 1.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Colchester vs Crewe?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Colchester vs Crewe at 71.1%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Colchester vs Crewe?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Colchester at 59.0% and Crewe at 41.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.