AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 16 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
ClermontClermontDDDDD
Full time2-3Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1013:00UK
Red StarRed StarDLWWW

Clermont 2-3 Red Star shots: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined60.8%
Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined39.2%

Result

Clermont2-3Red Star
Shots in this match: Clermont vs Red Star
This match Clermont Red Star Total
Shots 9 14 23
Shots on target 4 9 13
Under 24.5Over 7.5

We called Under 24.5 at 60.8% and it landed (23 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 50.7% and it landed (13 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 24.5 shots39.2%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Clermont.

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 52.0% 48.0%
24.5 shots 39.2% 60.8%
26.5 shots 27.8% 72.3%
28.5 shots 18.5% 81.5%

Who takes more shots

Clermont
53.7%
Level
6.6%
Red Star
39.7%

Team shots lines

Clermont

Over 10.5
61.5%
Over 12.5
43.4%
Over 14.5
27.7%

Red Star

Over 10.5
51.8%
Over 12.5
33.7%
Over 14.5
19.6%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 63.8% 36.2%
7.5 shots on target 50.7% 49.3%
8.5 shots on target 38.2% 61.8%
9.5 shots on target 27.3% 72.7%

Who has more on target

Clermont
46.6%
Level
13.3%
Red Star
40.1%

Team shots on target lines

Clermont

Over 3.5
55.1%
Over 4.5
37.6%
Over 5.5
23.4%

Red Star

Over 3.5
50.5%
Over 4.5
33.0%
Over 5.5
19.7%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Clermont's; Red Star gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Clermont line Clermont Red Star
-4.5 28.2% 71.8%
-2.5 40.4% 59.6%
-0.5 53.7% 46.3%
+0.5 60.3% 39.7%

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Clermont in their home matches and Red Star in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

ClermontClermont

Recorded 2026/27

Red StarRed Star
This season
Statistic
Clermont
Red Star
Shots per game
7.7
15.7

Shots faced per game
13.3
11.4

Shots on target per game
2.4
5.1

On target faced per game
2.6
4.0

Clermont at home, Red Star away
Statistic
Clermont
Red Star
Shots per game
5.8
14.8

Shots faced per game
10.5
13.3

Shots on target per game
1.8
4.8

On target faced per game
2.5
4.3

By half, this season

No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.

Last six league matches
Statistic
Clermont
Red Star
Shots per game
8.5
16.2

Shots faced per game
14.0
11.7

Matches
6
6

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.6% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 39.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 52.0% for over 22.5 to 18.5% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. Between the two sides, Clermont are the model’s pick to have more shots at 53.7%, with a level count at 6.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Clermont over 12.5 shots sits at 43.4% and Red Star at 33.7%. This season Clermont have averaged 7.7 shots a game and Red Star 15.7.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

39.2%Over 24.5 shots
53.7%Most shots: Clermont
43.4%Clermont over 12.5 shots
33.7%Red Star over 12.5 shots
50.7%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 39.2% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderClermont are the pick to have more shots at 53.7%, volume and pressure move together.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 22.5 shots: over sits at 52.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 22.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many shots in Clermont vs Red Star?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 39.2% for Clermont vs Red Star.
Which team will have more shots in Clermont vs Red Star?
Before kickoff, the model rated Clermont to take more shots at 53.7%.
How many shots do Red Star take away from home?
Red Star have taken 14.8 shots per game and faced 13.3 in recorded away league matches this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 2Clermont fixtures and statsRed Star fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.