La Liga
Celta vs 
Malaga Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 59.1% for over 22.5 to 23.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. Head to head on shots, Celta are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.8%, with a level count at 6.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.3% | 65.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.9% | 76.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.3%
53.4%
36.9%
51.6%
33.5%
19.5%
Shot handicap
| Celta line | Celta | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| -2.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| -0.5 | 60.8% | 39.3% |
| +0.5 | 66.9% | 33.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.5% | 39.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 35.4% | 64.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
3.2 / 5.2
5.2 / 5.5
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
This season (2026/27)
8.4Celta shots per game12.8Celta shots faced per game3.2Celta first-half shots5.2Celta second-half shotsTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Celta.
In-depth analysis
46.3%Over 24.5 shots53.4%Celta over 12.5 shots33.5%Malaga over 12.5 shots60.5%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Celta over 12.5 shots sits at 53.4% and Malaga at 33.5%. Celta take 3.2 shots before half-time and 5.2 after.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Celta vs Malaga?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 46.3% for Celta vs Malaga.
Which team will have more shots in Celta vs Malaga?
The model rates Celta to take more shots at 60.8%.
Do Celta shoot more in the first or second half?
Celta average 3.2 shots before half-time and 5.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.