Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Benfica Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 53.3% and it landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 53.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Casa Pia have averaged 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, Benfica 2.6 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 53.3% for over 2.5 and 77.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Casa Pia have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Benfica in 5 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 15.4% | 84.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.6% | 93.4% |
Team goal lines
56.9%
20.6%
5.4%
86.0%
58.5%
31.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.6% | 85.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.1% | 81.9% |
This season (2026/27)
0.0Casa Pia goals scored per game1.0Casa Pia goals conceded per game0.0%Casa Pia Over 2.5 rate0.0Casa Pia 1st-half goals per game2.0Benfica goals scored per game2.0Benfica goals conceded per game100.0%Benfica Over 2.5 rate1.0Benfica 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
49.4%Both Teams to Score53.3%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 53.3% for three or more goals and 77.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Benfica favoured at 63.3%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Benfica to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Casa Pia 1 · 2 draws · Benfica 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 53.3%. The match finished with 7 goals (0-7), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.