Primeira Liga
Moreirense vs 
Maritimo Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Moreirense have averaged 0.8 scored and 2.4 conceded, Maritimo 1.2 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.2% for over 2.5 and 72.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Moreirense have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Maritimo in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.3% | 8.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.2% | 88.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.4% | 95.6% |
Team goal lines
75.1%
40.5%
16.4%
67.8%
31.3%
10.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.5% | 86.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.2% | 83.8% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Moreirense goals scored per game2.4Moreirense goals conceded per game80.0%Moreirense Over 2.5 rate0.6Moreirense 1st-half goals per game1.2Maritimo goals scored per game1.6Maritimo goals conceded per game80.0%Maritimo Over 2.5 rate0.4Maritimo 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
51.5%Both Teams to Score46.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 46.2% for three or more goals and 72.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Moreirense favoured at 42.2%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Moreirense to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 3 · 1 draws · Maritimo 1 · 1.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 46.2% for Moreirense vs Maritimo.
Will there be a first-half goal in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 71.8%.
How often have Moreirense gone over 2.5 recently?
Moreirense have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Maritimo in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.