Samsunspor vs Goztep: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Samsunspor or draw
Draw or Goztep
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Samsunspor at 41.9%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 53.6% and it missed (6 goals). We called Yes at 51.7% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Samsunspor, that gap is the story." A measured edge to Samsunspor: 42% is the model's line for this Süper Lig meeting on 17 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Samsunspor at 45%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Form guide over the last six: Samsunspor W5 D0 L1, Goztep W2 D3 L1. Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 2 wins for Samsunspor, 1 draws and 1 for Goztep, averaging 4.0 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.025 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
41.9%-3.1%
27.8%-0.2%
30.3%+3.2%
conservative EV -0.025 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Samsunspor 2 · 1 draws · Goztep 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Samsunspor
Goztep55.9%41.2%
61.8%44.1%
26.5%47.1%
League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 55%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.5% | Over 7.5 | 59.3% | Over 8.5 | 46.8% | Over 9.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Samsunspor | 58.5% | Most: Goztep | 29.5% | ||||
| Samsunspor Over 4.2 | 51.6% | Goztep Over 4.2 | 30.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 84.0% | Over 3.5 | 67.9% | Over 4.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Samsunspor | 36.1% | Most: Goztep | 44.9% | ||
| Samsunspor Over 1.8 | 64.3% | Goztep Over 1.8 | 69.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Samsunspor clean sheet | 31.8% |
|---|---|
| Goztep clean sheet | 25.0% |
| Samsunspor win to nil | 23.2% |
| Goztep win to nil | 16.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 41.9% | draw | 27.8% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 69.7% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 58.0% | away | 42.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.7% | no | 48.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.9% | away | 25.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.3% | away | 16.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.8% | home_by_2 | 12.6% | home_by_3plus | 7.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.9% | away_by_2 | 8.6% | away_by_3plus | 3.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 0-1 | 8.5% | 0-2 | 5.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.0% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 2-1 | 8.8% | 2-2 | 5.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.6% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 4-1 | 1.4% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.4% | under_0.5 | 8.6% | over_1.5 | 72.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.5% | over_2.5 | 46.4% | under_2.5 | 53.6% |
| over_3.5 | 24.9% | under_3.5 | 75.1% | over_4.5 | 11.3% |
| under_4.5 | 88.7% | over_5.5 | 4.4% | under_5.5 | 95.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 75.0% | under_0.5 | 25.0% | over_1.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.6% | over_2.5 | 16.3% | under_2.5 | 83.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.1% | under_0.5 | 31.9% | over_1.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.4% | over_2.5 | 10.8% | under_2.5 | 89.2% |
most
| home | 41.9% | draw | 27.8% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.4% | away_+2.5 | 92.6% | home_-1.5 | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 80.0% | home_-0.5 | 41.9% | away_+0.5 | 58.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.7% | away_-0.5 | 30.3% | home_+1.5 | 87.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 12.4% | home_+2.5 | 96.1% | away_-2.5 | 3.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.6% | exact_1 | 18.9% | exact_2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.6% | exact_5 | 6.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.8% | draw | 44.7% | away | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 65.8% | under_0.5 | 34.2% | over_1.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.9% | over_2.5 | 9.4% | under_2.5 | 90.6% |
btts
| yes | 17.1% | no | 82.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.2% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.0% | exact_4plus | 2.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.9% | draw | 36.4% | away | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.0% | under_0.5 | 23.1% | over_1.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.9% | over_2.5 | 18.3% | under_2.5 | 81.7% |
btts
| yes | 25.6% | no | 74.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.4% | H/D | 3.4% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.8% | D/D | 16.3% | D/A | 9.7% |
| A/H | 3.8% | A/D | 6.8% | A/A | 19.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 68.4% | under_7.5 | 31.6% | over_8.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.8% | over_9.5 | 43.9% | under_9.5 | 56.1% |
| over_10.5 | 32.6% | under_10.5 | 67.4% | over_11.5 | 23.0% |
| under_11.5 | 77.0% | over_12.5 | 15.5% | under_12.5 | 84.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.6% | under_3.5 | 28.4% | over_4.5 | 56.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.9% | over_5.5 | 40.9% | under_5.5 | 59.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.4% | under_3.5 | 44.7% | over_4.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.9% | over_5.5 | 24.1% | under_5.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 56.3% | draw | 10.7% | away | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.1% | home_-1.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.8% | home_-0.5 | 56.3% | away_+0.5 | 43.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.1% | away_-0.5 | 32.9% | home_+1.5 | 76.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.5% | home_+3.5 | 90.0% | away_-3.5 | 10.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.6% | under_22.5 | 34.4% | over_24.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 46.4% | over_26.5 | 41.6% | under_26.5 | 58.4% |
| over_28.5 | 30.6% | under_28.5 | 69.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.2% | under_10.5 | 26.9% | over_12.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.7% | over_14.5 | 41.3% | under_14.5 | 58.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.4% | under_10.5 | 42.6% | over_12.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 60.2% | over_14.5 | 25.0% | under_14.5 | 75.0% |
most
| home | 59.3% | draw | 5.9% | away | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.1% | away_+4.5 | 64.9% | home_-2.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.0% | home_-0.5 | 59.3% | away_+0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.1% | away_-0.5 | 34.9% | home_+2.5 | 75.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.3% | home_+4.5 | 84.2% | away_-4.5 | 15.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.5% | under_6.5 | 28.5% | over_7.5 | 59.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.7% | over_8.5 | 46.8% | under_8.5 | 53.2% |
| over_9.5 | 35.1% | under_9.5 | 64.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.2% | under_3.5 | 31.8% | over_4.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.4% | over_5.5 | 36.0% | under_5.5 | 64.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.0% | under_3.5 | 52.0% | over_4.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.5% | over_5.5 | 17.6% | under_5.5 | 82.4% |
most
| home | 58.5% | draw | 12.0% | away | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.6% | away_+2.5 | 66.4% | home_-0.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.5% | home_+0.5 | 70.5% | away_-0.5 | 29.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.2% | away_-2.5 | 11.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 84.0% | under_2.5 | 16.0% | over_3.5 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 32.2% | over_4.5 | 49.2% | under_4.5 | 50.8% |
| over_5.5 | 31.9% | under_5.5 | 68.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 64.3% | under_1.5 | 35.7% | over_2.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 69.9% | under_1.5 | 30.1% | over_2.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 56.0% |
most
| home | 36.1% | draw | 19.0% | away | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.1% | away_+1.5 | 79.9% | home_-0.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.9% | home_+0.5 | 55.1% | away_-0.5 | 44.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.8% | away_-1.5 | 27.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.8% | under_20.5 | 13.2% | over_22.5 | 76.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.4% | over_24.5 | 63.6% | under_24.5 | 36.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 72.8% | under_9.5 | 27.2% | over_11.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.4% | over_13.5 | 31.1% | under_13.5 | 68.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 90.6% | under_9.5 | 9.4% | over_11.5 | 77.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 22.1% | over_13.5 | 60.1% | under_13.5 | 39.9% |
most
| home | 26.9% | draw | 6.4% | away | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 12.2% | away_+3.5 | 87.8% | home_-0.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.1% | home_+2.5 | 47.4% | away_-2.5 | 52.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 20.7% | no | 79.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.8% | no | 94.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.8% | no | 84.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Samsunspor predictions · Goztep predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets