Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Benfica Correct Score
Result
Final score 0-7. It landed outside the model’s most-likely scorelines, correct score is high-variance by design.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.7% at 0-2, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Casa Pia have averaged 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, Benfica 2.6 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 53.3% for over 2.5 and 77.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-2 | 11.7% |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 0-3 | 7.7% |
| 0-0 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 6.4% |
| 1-0 | 4.6% |
Score probability grid
| Casa Pia \ Benfica | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% |
| 1 | 5% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 2 | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Casa Pia goals, columns = Benfica. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 11.7%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
49.4%Both Teams to Score53.3%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 53.3% for three or more goals and 77.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Benfica favoured at 63.3%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Casa Pia 1 · 2 draws · Benfica 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia vs Benfica finished 0-7. The model's most likely scoreline was 0-2 at 11.7%, correct score is high-variance by design.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.