Premier League
Brighton vs 
Fulham Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 57.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.9% for over 2.5 to 22.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.6%. Head to head on cards, Fulham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.3%, with a level count at 19.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.8%
24.4%
67.9%
41.6%
Card handicap
| Brighton line | Brighton | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| -0.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| +0.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| +1.5 | 67.7% | 32.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.0% | 42.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.7% | 58.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.1% | 72.9% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brighton vs Fulham. Slightly more cards are projected for Fulham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.6%Over 3.5 cards13.3%Any red card50.8%Brighton over 1.5 cards67.9%Fulham over 1.5 cards41.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Brighton over 1.5 cards sits at 50.8% and Fulham at 67.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.3% (Brighton 6.1%, Fulham 7.7%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Brighton vs Fulham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 57.6% for Brighton vs Fulham.
Will there be a red card in Brighton vs Fulham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brighton vs Fulham?
The model rates Fulham to pick up more cards at 52.3%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.