Premier League
Brentford vs 
Chelsea Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 51.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 63.4% for over 22.5 to 30.1% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. Between the two sides, Brentford are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.9%, with a level count at 5.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.1% | 69.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.3%
53.8%
38.7%
57.8%
41.1%
26.9%
Shot handicap
| Brentford line | Brentford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| -2.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| -0.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| +0.5 | 61.7% | 38.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.2% | 59.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
6.8 / 10.2
7.2 / 8.0
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Brentford.
In-depth analysis
51.9%Over 24.5 shots53.8%Brentford over 12.5 shots41.1%Chelsea over 12.5 shots63.3%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Brentford over 12.5 shots sits at 53.8% and Chelsea at 41.1%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Brentford vs Chelsea?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 51.9% for Brentford vs Chelsea.
Which team will have more shots in Brentford vs Chelsea?
The model rates Brentford to take more shots at 55.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,899 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
