ChampionshipBirmingham vs Bristol City Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.4% for over 2.5 to 15.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.1%. Head to head on cards, Bristol City are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 21.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.4% | 84.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.2%
23.0%
57.5%
30.5%
Card handicap
| Birmingham line | Birmingham | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| -0.5 | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.9% | 73.1% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Birmingham vs Bristol City. It tips Bristol City for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.1%Over 3.5 cards15.3%Any red card49.2%Birmingham over 1.5 cards57.5%Bristol City over 1.5 cards40.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Birmingham over 1.5 cards sits at 49.2% and Bristol City at 57.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.3% (Birmingham 5.9%, Bristol City 10.0%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.1% for Birmingham vs Bristol City.
Will there be a red card in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bristol City to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.