ChampionshipBirmingham vs Bristol City Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Under 2.5 at 57.6% and it missed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 57.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Birmingham have averaged 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, Bristol City 1.4 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.4% for over 2.5 and 69.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Birmingham have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Bristol City in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.1% | 9.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 78.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 9.3% | 90.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.4% | 96.6% |
Team goal lines
74.3%
39.5%
15.7%
63.8%
27.0%
8.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.2% | 84.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.0% | 92.0% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
48.0%Both Teams to Score42.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 42.4% for three or more goals and 69.3% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Birmingham favoured at 44.1%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Birmingham to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Birmingham 2 · 1 draws · Bristol City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 42.4%. The match finished with 4 goals (2-2), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.