Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Go Ahead Eagles Cards
Result
Settled, final score 5-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 33.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 55.9% for over 2.5 to 8.1% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.9%. Between the two sides, Go Ahead Eagles are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.3%, with a level count at 23.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.7% | 82.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.1% | 92.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
34.8%
13.0%
50.4%
24.5%
Card handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.7% | 88.3% |
| -0.5 | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| +0.5 | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| +1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.1% | 79.0% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles. It tips Go Ahead Eagles for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
33.9%Over 3.5 cards14.4%Any red card34.8%AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards50.4%Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 cards33.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards sits at 34.8% and Go Ahead Eagles at 50.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.4% (AZ Alkmaar 2.5%, Go Ahead Eagles 12.2%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 33.9% for AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Will there be a red card in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Before kickoff, the model rated Go Ahead Eagles to pick up more cards at 48.3%, with a level count at 23.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.