Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Go Ahead Eagles Corners
Result
Settled, final score 5-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 57.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 81.2% for over 7.5 to 28.5% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.2%. Between the two sides, AZ Alkmaar are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.3%, with a level count at 9.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 81.2% | 18.8% |
| 8.5 corners | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 38.3% | 61.8% |
| 12.5 corners | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.9%
65.8%
51.7%
65.2%
49.2%
34.5%
Corner handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| -1.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| -0.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| +0.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges AZ Alkmaar.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners sits at 65.8% and Go Ahead Eagles at 49.2%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 60.6% for AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Which team will win the corner count in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Before kickoff, the model rated AZ Alkmaar to win the corner count at 56.3%, with a level count at 9.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 1,504 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.